UFC Fight Night: Miller vs Benitez Odds, Picks & Predictions

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11 January 2024

UFC Fight Night: Miller vs Benitez Odds, Picks & Predictions

After competing at both UFC 100 and 200, a win on Saturday could punch Jim Miller's ticket to the much-anticipated UFC 300. And although Benitez won't be easy, our UFC betting picks expect the veteran Miller to come out with a win.

Jim Miller faces Gabriel Benitez in this clash of lightweights as our featured undercard attraction of the first UFC Fight Night of 2024, taking place January 13 from The Apex in Las Vegas.

Miller hopes a win over the tough Benitez can help him land on the UFC 300 card, as the veteran also competed at UFC 100 and 200. UFC odds have Miller pegged as a -130 favorite, with Benitez a +110 underdog.

Here are my free picks for Miller vs. Benitez at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas.

Jim Miller vs Gabriel Benitez fight odds

Miller vs Benitez picks

Fight prediction: Miller

Jim Miller may not threaten the top tier of the lightweight division, but he remains one of its most formidable journeymen. The always-aggressive Miller is one of the UFC’s best finishers, and is all about making the most of his offense. “A-10” constantly looks for an early night, and he’s equally dangerous on the ground as he is in his standup. All of Miller’s wins since 2016 have come inside the distance.

Gabriel Benitez is a volume striker who needs to be first and in control of the bout. He’s prone to taking punishment and likes to exchange, and does so with a bad chin that’s seen him stopped four times. Being tough and gritty is always admirable, but it’s not smart when you have a glass chin.

Benitez is going to try and stretch the fight out to take Miller the distance with takedowns and grappling, but A-10 is capable enough on the ground to threaten a submission as well. Either way, Miller has enough in the tank to win this.

Prediction: Jim Miller moneyline (-130 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Over 1.5 rounds

This fight could go either way, but it does look like the UFC is trying to scoot Miller into UFC 300 with a win. He should come right at Benitez once the bout begins, and he’ll get him uncomfortable enough that Benitez feels the need to stand his ground. Once he starts to open up, Miller will catch him with a big shot.

We’ve seen Benitez get strafed and flattened inside a round on multiple occasions at featherweight. His high-risk approach to engaging strikers up close hasn’t paid off, and even though Miller is older, he is highly motivated and always aims for a finish.

Even if Benitez tries to get Miller on the ground, A-10's background in wrestling and BJJ will be enough to get the better of the scrambles potentially. If the fight does remain grounded, Miller has 19 submission wins.

Miller might win by stoppage, but I believe Benitez is resourceful enough to escape the first round, and one never knows when age will come for a fighter in his forties. I’m expecting this fight to go Over 1.5 rounds.

Pick: Over 1.5 rounds (-140 at Bet99)

Miller vs Benitez betting preview

Miller enters his 55th UFC fight holding several promotional records, and still has enough left in the tank to make some noise at lightweight. While Miller won’t ever be confused for a top contender, he has 26 overall finishes in his MMA career and seldom goes the distance.

Miller has gone 4-1 in his last five fights and is coming off a devastating first-round knockout win over Jesse Butler last June.

Benitez is an action fighter recently upgraded to lightweight after the strain of making the 145-pound limit was too much. He’s 2-3 in his last five fights, but Benitez comes in the younger fighter with good cardio, a solid takedown game, and the propensity to get rough.

Miller will stick to what works and aggressively pursue Benitez, whose defensive lapses have resulted in him being knocked out early on several occasions. If Benitez can weather Miller’s early storm and protect his chin, he can outlast him as long as he keeps his work rate up.