UFC Fight Night 234: Miller vs. Benitez odds, picks and predictions

In a 3-round lightweight bout on the main card, Jim Miller and Gabriel Benitez meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 234 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 234: Miller vs. Benitez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Miller (36-17-0) | Benitez (23-11-0)

Miller knocked out Jesse Butler in just 23 seconds in early June, bouncing back nicely from a unanimous-decision loss to Alexander Hernandez on Feb. 18. He is 4-1 in the past 5 fights, with 3 KO/TKO wins and 1 submission victory. Miller is just 5-4 in the past 9 fights, with all 4 losses coming via unanimous decision.

Benitez recorded a 1st-round knockout against Charlie Ontiveros last time out in mid-August, and he has managed a 2-2 record in the past 4 outing with each of the outings ending via KO/TKO. He is just 2-4 in the past 6 bouts, and he has ended up going the distance only 3 times in the previous 11 fights.

Benitez holds a 4.79-to-2.86 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Miller is more accurate at 49.25% to 44.91% for Benitez. Miller holds a 1.56-to-0.27 takedown average, while he has a 1.75-to-1.08 submission average lead.

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UFC Fight Night 234: Miller vs. Benitez odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.

UFC Fight Night 234: Miller vs. Benitez picks and predictions

MILLER (-160) might be 40 years old, and 5 years older than his counterpart, but the veteran still packs a lot of punch. Literally. He has recorded 3 KO/TKO wins in the past 5 fights, and the southpaw will look to add to the woes of Benitez (+125).

Benitez does good work on the mat, but so does Miller. The favorite has a tremendous 1.75 submission average, with a 1.56 submission average. Upright, on the canvas, or somewhere in between, Miller is more versatile, and the veteran will get the job done.

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-135) is worth a look. While he hasn’t made it past the halfway point of Round 2 in 4 of his past 5 fights, he has ended up going the distance in 4 of the previous 9 bouts.

Benitez has also had 3 finishes in Round 1 in the past 4 outings. While that might suggest a quick finish, I think both of these guys spend some time trying to feel each other out. The skillsets are very similar, as is the significant strikes accuracy percentage.

As far as the total fight, No (-300): Will the fight go the distance? will set you back 3 times, which is just too much risk and not enough reward.

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