UFC Fight Night predictions, picks: Yan vs. Dvalishvili

What a weekend we had betting on the UFC.

Jon Jones returned with a bang, dominating his opponent in the first two minutes of round one.

If you were tailing last weekend’s betting card, you were up a whopping 14.1 units, something you rarely see in conventional betting.

If you’re also counting , you would’ve seen 31.1 units of profit.

What a weekend.

But this all comes with strategy.

We are narrowing down each fighter’s win condition, using tape study to make predictions about how the fight will play out, and finding value in odds based on those measurements.

This is how we will target UFC Fight Night tonight and nearly every Saturday going forward.

Tonight’s card will air live on ESPN+ starting at 3 p.m. ET with the prelims and the main card beginning at 6 p.m. ET.

UFC Fight Night predictions and picks

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili prediction

A huge main event is on tap for us at the bantamweight as grappling powerhouse Merab Dvalishvili faces the well-rounded Petr Yan.

For me, this one screams decision, and Yan potentially loses another close decision.

Dvalishvili has an unbelievable motor that is nonstop, something Yan may struggle to deal with.

Overall, I see Yan winning the early rounds with power strikes and knees: if he wins, it will likely be inside the distance.

Dvalishvili will constantly be shooting for takedowns and seemingly never gets tired, which is what we should expect come fight time.

The issue with that strategy is the way fights are scored these days.

Control against the cage simply doesn’t win you fights like it used to.

Take this fight to go to a decision at -190 on FanDuel and be done.

It’s a good parlay piece in what will likely be a low-volume standstill in rounds three, four, and five.

Alexandr Romanov vs. Alexander Volkov prediction

Money is flying on Alexander Volkov; let’s grab the value on his opponent Alexandr Romanov.

Romanov is massive, weighing in at 264lbs. on Friday.

Some people call him out of shape but I see no issue with his 20lb weight gain.

Volkov loves to keep his distance and box his way to victory, but Romanov won’t let him do that.

Romanov will charge at him with grappling and probably wins this fight in the first round.

If it gets past that, there may be value in rounds two and three on Volkov.

But frankly, Romanov should win this relatively easily.

Back Romanov to win by submission in rounds 1 or 2 +320 on FanDuel or by submission outright +280 on BetRivers.

Either are fine bets; Romanov is a good parlay to add with a fight that goes the distance for the main event.

Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann prediction

Here’s a fun fight.

This was supposed to be a main event a few weeks ago but was canceled due to an illness.

In steps Nikita Krylov against the difficult to predict Ryan Spann.

Krylov is going to be the superior wrestler, but Spann is the excellent athlete in this fight.

This is a tough fight to truly predict but the value here is on a longer fight, based on it being three rounds.

When the fight was a five-rounder two weeks go, oddsmakers had the fight to go to a decision at +500.

Currently, you can get the fight to go the distance at +390 despite the fight getting nearly cut in half (15 minutes vs. 25 minutes).

However, the two ways to target this fight are below.

Over 1.5 rounds is +140 on Caesars, by far the best line out there, whereas other books pin it at +118 or worse.

If you’re looking for a value spot, Krylov to win in round 3 or by decision is +430 on FanDuel, but it is +350 on other books.

Jonathan Martinez vs. Said Nurmagomedov prediction

Perhaps the best fight to bet on comes in a bout between Jonathan Martinez and Said Nurmagomedov.

Nurmagomedov is not related to Khabib, despite having the same last name.

Martinez has been on a roll of late, dominating his opponents with elite low-calf kicks and solid stand up.

Expect this one to be a stand-up fight with lots of action on both sides.

You could do worse than the fight goes the distance at -140, but the play here is Martinez by decision at +400 on Bet365.

Martinez struggles off his back and that isn’t really Nurmagomedov’s game.

In a stand-up war, Martinez should win many exchanges at a high clip.

UFC Fight Night picks and parlay

• Yan/Dvalishvili goes the distance -190 (FanDuel)
• Romanov wins by submission in rounds 1 or 2 +320 (FanDuel) or by submission outright +280 on (BetRivers)
• Krylov/Spann Over 1.5 rounds +140 (Caesars)
• Krylov wins in Round 3 or by decision +430 (FanDuel)
• Jonathan Martinez wins by decision +400 (Bet365)

The odds for this parlay are long, 468/1 on FanDuel.

A $10 bet would win $4,682 if we got really lucky.

Martinez wins by decision +360 + Krylov wins in round 3 +1600 + Vitor Petrino wins by KO/TKO in round 1 +500

Please bet responsibly here and enjoy the fights.