UFC on ESPN 51: Luque vs. dos Anjos odds, picks and predictions

In a welterweight bout in the main event, Vicente Luque and Rafael dos Anjos meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 51 at UFX APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 51: Luque vs. dos Anjos odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

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Records: Luque (21-9-1) | dos Anjos (32-14-0)

Luque heads to the octagon with back-to-back setbacks, suffering a KO/TKO in the 3rd round against Geoff Neal last time out in Aug. 2022 and losing via unanimous decision against Belal Muhammad in April 2022. His most recent victory was a 1st-round submission against Michael Chiesa back on Aug. 7, 2021.

Dos Anjos submitted Bryan Barberena last time out in early December as he bounced back from a KO/TKO loss to Rafael Fiziev in July 2022. He has picked up 3 wins in the past 4 bouts after a pair of unanimous-decision setbacks to Chiesa and Leon Edwards. He has gone the distance in 9 of his last 13 bouts dating back to Nov. 2016.

Luque boasts an impressive 5 1/2-inch reach advantage, and that should serve him well in keeping dos Anjos at a distance, picking and choosing his spots for the big blow. The 31-year-old Brazilian also holds a solid 5.49-to-3.56 significant strikes landed per minute advantage.

If dos Anjos is to make any noise, he’ll want to get Luque to the canvas. RDA sports a solid 2.05 takedown average, while Luque has just a 0.51 takedown average. The underdog Luque is a little more accurate on takedowns, too, posting a 50.0% mark, while dos Anjos has managed a 35.87% takedown accuracy percentage.

UFC on ESPN 51: Luque vs. dos Anjos odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:49 a.m. ET.

UFC on ESPN 51: Luque vs. dos Anjos picks and predictions

LUQUE (+100) is a solid value straight up on the 2-way line as a short ‘dog at even money.

I believe Luque will use his immense reach advantage to his advantage, dictating the pace of the fight. He’ll be able to pick and choose his spots to go in for the big shot while holding dos Anjos at a distance.

However, I don’t feel as if Luque is going to be able to score the finish. METHOD OF VICTORY – 7-WAY: LUQUE BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+500) is super attractive for an opportunity to multiply your initial wager by 5 times.

YES (+120): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is worth a look at plus money, if you don’t want to declare a winner, yet want a little action in this fight. OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-125) isn’t priced out of line, if you want a little wiggle room in the event of a potential late-round stoppage.

And I think Luque will be able to land more significant strikes than dos Anjos, so go OVER (-110) ON LUQUE – TOTAL SIGNIFICANT STRIKES.