Week 18 NFL picks, odds and best bets

We ended 2023 on a sour note, at least as far as our NFL picks. The Dallas Cowboys — a Week 17 pick to cover the point spread against the Detroit Lions — gave up a last-minute touchdown to lose the cover, winning 20-19 after a chaotic finish. However, the Cowboys did finish 8-0 at AT&T Stadium, their first perfect home record since the 1981 season. Then, Sunday’s game between the San Francisco 49ers and Washington Commanders only produced 37 points, well short of the 48½ total we needed. Perhaps things would have been different if injured quarterback Jacoby Brissett had been able to start for Washington instead of Sam Howell — or if the 49ers had fared better in the red zone, where they kicked one short field goal and were stopped on fourth and goal from the Washington 1-yard line.

The week wasn’t all doom and gloom. Chicago Bears wide receiver D.J. Moore crushed the over 66.5 receiving yards prop with 159 yards (on nine catches) against the Atlanta Falcons. Fellow Bears receiver Darnell Mooney (concussion) missed the game, and tight end Cole Kmet (knee) had no catches as Moore excelled.

Before we get to this week’s best bets it’s worth noting what we are looking for in Week 18, when some teams have nothing to play for. We want to focus on teams whose games have playoff implications, and players with individual incentives in their contracts that could lead to intriguing player props.

Picks were made against the consensus point spreads as of Wednesday morning; odds that have since changed have been updated in bold type, but picks are locked in at the earlier odds. Check back later in the week for a possible player prop.