XFL Odds and Previews: St. Louis Battlehawks vs DC Defenders Pick and Best Over/Under Lines in Week 5
March Madness is taking over network TV for the foreseeable future, and the UEFA Champions League playoff round is accelerating just as Major League Soccer takes another stab at beating Liga MX in our state-side Champions League. Baseball has begun early, the Masters Tournament is soon to introduce a series of emotional PGA vs LIV Golf grudge matches at major tournament venues. The NHL playoffs are right around the corner.
None of that’s stopping The Rock’s new XFL from dropping a People’s Elbow in 2023. The league has been a marvel of alternative American pigskin so far, drawing crowds of 20,000+ spectators to stadiums in more than one locale, and producing fun, exciting action that highlights defense while giving the offenses a fair shake. Don’t be surprised to see other alternative leagues mimic The Rock’s modern XFL, or even attempt to merge with it.
WagerBop is happy to have gone 4-0 with our XFL picks last weekend, and 11-4 on the season so far. Invariably, the other shoe is going to drop at some point. But with sportsbooks still making similar mistakes as in Week 1 of a season that’s gone overlooked in the glut of sports on TV, it’s hard not to feel pretty good about our XFL forecast in Week 5 too.
Houston Roughnecks at Seattle Sea Dragons (Thursday, March 16)
The NFL has had so many misadventures trying to put quality Thursday night games on TV that you’d think the XFL would know better than to even try. The league’s first attempt at a Thursday night game in 2023, however, turned into a classic as A.J. McCarron led the St. Louis Battlehawks to a comeback win over the Seattle Sea Dragons.
Seattle can hope that “TNF Spring” debut wasn’t an omen for this Thursday, in which the hosts are a (+145) underdog against the visiting 4-0 Houston Roughnecks. Brandon Silvers has only impressed as a field general in Space City, throwing 10 touchdown passes and another handful of conversion-after-TD tosses while passing for nearly 1000 yards on just 88 attempts so far. The Sea Dragons actually have a higher-rated QB in Ben DiNucci, or at least the XFL’s likely Fantasy QB kingpin so long as DiNucci’s throwing to WR Josh Gordon. However, nothing that the dynamic duo has accomplished has gotten Seattle in contention for North Division honors. Houston is backing up its highlights with superior defense.
Point-total lines for the XFL are increasing as lively games dot the ledger, but perhaps not increasing enough at just O/U (42.5) points on Seattle-Houston. This contest may represent DiNucci’s last effort to lay a winning rail for the Sea Dragons going into the stretch run, and his weapons will be more dangerous with a friendly crowd helping out the offensive line.
WagerBop’s Pick: Over (42.5)
D.C. Defenders at St. Louis Battlehawks (Saturday, March 18)
It may be that odds-makers are too cautious in giving the Thursday game an O/U (42.5) point total betting line, and they are putting too many of their “league scoring average” points into Saturday’s kickoff in St. Louis. The D.C. Defenders have an NCAA-style system with multiple running QBs, sure to result in a ball-control game plan against the homestanding Battlehawks, the XFL’s most-dangerous momentum club.
St Louis QB A.J. McCarron’s hosts are (+2) and (+110) FanDuel underdogs for the indoor bout, despite McCarron’s 9 TDs putting him in Silvers and DiNucci’s class.
WagerBop’s Pick: Under (42.5)
Orlando Guardians at Vegas Vipers (Saturday, March 18)
Saturday night’s alright for fighting, but it’s also the time for an XFL “consolation bowl” of 0-4 XFL teams, when the Vegas Vipers (-7.5) and Orlando Guardians (+280) compete to see who can stink the least, ahem, who can win in front of a small, skeptical Sin City crowd.
The Guardians may be the XFL’s best candidate to tank out with a cellar record. Yet is the point spread, and the moneyline market, too exaggerated for a fight between hapless teams? Spectators of Friday Night Lights know that it’s often an “O-for” matchup that produces a season’s closest margin of victory on the conference scoreboard. The same is often the case when Vanderbilt takes on the 2nd-worst team in college football’s SEC.
Luis Perez, should the journeyman start for Vegas, is the kind of cool-headed veteran to ignore any boo-birds and produce a win over a bad team like Orlando. It’s not as if a “one-score” forecast for victory should always be handicapped at “(-7)” on the spread in a league for which 2-point conversions are the norm and attempts at 3-point PATs are made.
On the other hand, it’s not as though Las Vegas bookies should be factoring in any “home team advantage” for minor league football clubs, even their own XFL home team. In the 2022 spring season, there was only one USFL team (Birmingham) to enjoy a home-field advantage, and there will probably only be 2 or 3 XFL teams during the 2023 run that can boast them.
WagerBop’s Pick: Guardians ATS (+7.5)
Arlington Renegades at San Antonio Brahmas (Sunday, March 19)
It is rather weird to see the O/U line at just (35.5) total points for Sunday’s lone XFL contest, just as it wouldn’t originally have been anticipated that San Antonio (-140) would be a slight favorite against well-hyped Arlington. But the Renegades were punished and beaten by STL last weekend, while the 1-3 Brahmas at least get to come home to Texas after suffering 2 road losses in a 6-day stretch.
The Arlington roster has been thinned by injuries, and coach Bob Stoops still isn’t sure what to do at quarterback or RB. You’d have to think that Renegades opponents will be seen as dangerous halftime live-bet picks until Arlington figures out some type of effective offense, due to the overall liveliness and quality of XFL rosters thus far.
The USFL hasn’t been filled with teams that can punish a foe forced to keep punting on possession after possession, but the more dynamic XFL brand of offense could ensure a losing record for teams that go 3-and-out. Regretfully for those who’re eagerly picking San Antonio’s spread line, each of Sunday’s teams could wind up too creaky to contend.
WagerBop’s Pick: No Recommended Bet
