XFL Odds, Picks & Predictions

The XFL is back and is better than ever! Football fans can look forward to seeing plenty of familiar faces this weekend with all eight franchises taking the field.

Missing football already?

You're in luck! The third go-around of the XFL is set to kick off less than a week after Super Bowl LVII.

A few things have changed since the 2020 season, starting at the top with co-owner Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. Bob Stoops is the only returning coach from the last, abridged season.

There are four games on tap this weekend. The Vegas Vipers face the Arlington Renegades to kick things off on Saturday followed by the Orlando Guardians at Houston Roughnecks later that same day. Sunday also featured two games with the St. Louis BattleHawks taking on the San Antonio Brahmas and the Seattle Sea Dragons facing the DC Defenders in the night game.

XFL picks for Week 1

Picks made on February 17, 2023 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Week 1 XFL odds and predictions

Vegas Vipers vs Arlington Renegades

Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET, ABC

The first game of the 2023 XFL season sees Rod Woodson make his coaching debut as the leader of the Vegas Vipers. Spring football veteran Luis Perez is expected to get the starting nod at quarterback, although former UCLA Bruin star Brett Hundley could also see action for a few series. Martavis Bryant will look to stake his claim as a star player in the league at wide receiver, entering the league with arguably more accolades than any other player. Former NFL sack king Vic Beasley leads the defense.

Arlington is the rightful favorite here at home, currently sitting between -2.5 and 3 depending on the book. They have a veteran coaching staff led by legend Bob Stoops and also featuring co-offensive coordinators Chuck Long and Jon Hayes.

There may be a surprise at quarterback, where word out of camp is that Ball State’s Drew Plitt beat out USFL standout Kyle Sloter for the starting role. Whoever is under center should perform well enough. Sloter is a relatively accomplished name (70.9% completion percentage and 12:1 TD:INT ratio in 13 career NFL preseason games), while Plitt drew rave reviews in camp and would have a veteran staff’s confidence if he is indeed the starter.

Arlington should be among the league’s best teams and has the advantage of playing at home, where they’ve been practicing to prepare for the season. Vegas may be getting respect in the betting market due to their star power (Bryant and Beasley), but Arlington appears to be the superior side overall on paper.

Pick: Arlington -2.5 (-125 at FanDuel)

Orlando Guardians vs Houston Roughnecks

Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/FX

Orlando has the longest XFL Championship odds, sitting at +950 at DraftKings Sportsbook. NFL veteran Terrell Buckley coaches a team with question marks up and down the roster, and reports out of camp weren’t inspiring much confidence about the Guardians surprisingly competing in this league.

Former first-round NFL Draft pick Paxton Lynch recently joined the team and is expected to start, although it’s possible as many as three quarterbacks see the field. None of this is encouraging news.

Houston is tied for the second-longest odds in the futures market at +650 to win it all. That’s a tad surprising considering longtime NFL coach Wade Phillips brings more name power than just about any coach in the league. I’m a fan of offensive coordinator AJ Smith, a bright young mind with an impressive resume considering his age.

The Roughnecks’ roster doesn’t look like much on paper, but they should be able to take advantage of what’s expected to be a poor Guardians offensive line. Troubles along the line of scrimmage can be a death toll in this league.

Houston’s offensive line coach is Andre Gurode, a well-thought-of trench general that should have his big men ready to be a step ahead of their competition.

I like Houston in this spot given the expected advantage in the trenches and coaching edge. The news has mostly been negative surrounding the Guardians during camp and I will make them prove the doubters wrong before believing differently.

There is a juiced -2.5 available in the market, but I’m going to avoid laying juice whenever possible given the uncertainty of this league, and opt for Houston -3 at -110 odds.

Pick: Houston -3 (-110 at bet365)

St. Louis BattleHawks vs San Antonio Brahmas

Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET, ABC

The BattleHawks are currently the betting favorite to win the 2023 XFL Championship, sitting at +450 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Former New York Jets tight end Anthony Becht is a relative unknown at head coach, although reports have been positive and he certainly comes off as dedicated and focused to the task at hand.

AJ McCarron is QB1, opting for a chance at playing time after a decade of backing up other quarterbacks in the NFL. He seems to have a bit of a chip on his shoulder with something to prove after so much time spent riding the pine.

It’ll be fun to see football arrive in San Antonio, and it’ll be even better with Hines Ward manning the sideline. Former Wisconsin and Notre Dame quarterback Jack Coan gets the nod at quarterback and will play behind an offensive line with a (relative) ton of NFL experience.

St. Louis appears to have one of the better defenses in the league led by linebackers Mike Rose and Lakiem Williams. I’d be surprised if they don’t give a strong performance in the opener against a Brahmas offense that doesn’t look better than league-average on paper.

When the BattleHawks have the ball, there are concerns about an offensive line that hasn’t appeared game ready in the lead-up to this game, which I consider to be a minor red flag for a team hoping to compete for the title.

I’ll play the Under in this matchup, expecting St. Louis’ defense to impress while the offense takes a while to find its rhythm.

Pick: Under 36.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Seattle Sea Dragons vs DC Defenders

Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

The last game of the weekend is the hardest one for me to call, and it’s lined the closest of the four games with the hometown Defenders sitting between -1.5 and +1 at current. This Week 1 finale could be a great game as I expect a fun venue at the picturesque Audi Stadium.

Seattle is led by former NFL Coach of the Year Jim Haslett and has experienced coordinators in OC June Jones and DC Ron Zook.

Expect a pass-first offense in Jones’ system with former Dallas Cowboys backup Ben DiNucci chucking the ball to a wide receiver room that features arguably the biggest name of them all in the XFL — Josh Gordon. The former Cleveland Browns standout has struggled to stay on the field in his career and it’s been about a decade since he made a truly positive impact on a team, but the fact remains that he was once one of the best athletes in America.

Seattle’s coaching staff is high on the team’s offensive line, giving me confidence that this offense should be able to score points. Good coordinator? Check? Experience head coach? Check. Quarterback talent? Check. Receiving room? Check.

DC will be coached by Reggie Barlow, a longtime coach at the HBCU ranks. His team should have a power-run approach offensively with a great running back room featuring Baylor star Abram Smith along with Ryquell Armstead and Artavis Pierce. Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu was a standout in the XFL in 2020 and will make this offense difficult to defend given his dual-threat capabilities.

Defensively, I had circled their defensive front seven as being among the league's best. It’s been reported that up to five defensive linemen were injured in camp, so it’s unsure what that unit will look like in Week 1. One thing we do know is that they will be aggressive under DC Gregg Williams.

This one is too close for me to pick a side, so I’ll target the total instead.

Both teams have received positive reports along the offensive line out of camp, which is far from a given in this league. Both teams have experienced quarterbacks that should be able to lead a functioning offense. Haslett is an experienced coach along with June Jones, whereas Barlow has worked with his coordinators at previous stops and seems to have a cohesive plan in place for his roster.

I’ll take the Over in the Week 1 finale.

Pick: Over 35.5 (-115 at FanDuel)