2022 Midterms: Will Election Forecasters Get it Right This Year?

Election modelers are relied on to offer election predictions months and sometimes years in advance of national contests. FiveThirtyEight is the leading source in the election prediction game. The site has put out its 2022 midterm predictions. The generic ballot and partisan lean are doing most of the work in their models. Other factors, such as historical trends and developments in news, should be considered. This year's election cycle, the Supreme Court's decision to overturn abortion rights is likely to skew the models and change the data. Donald Trump's endorsements have helped elevate unconventional candidates.