2023 CFP odds futures picks: Washington, Texas Tech
The 2023 College Football season is off to a rollicking start.
Texas is back. So is Florida State.
And for the first time in forever, the SEC looks like it could be wide open, while Ohio State may have problems at quarterback.
We’re used to the chalk holding pretty strong in college football, but this season could be wide open at the top. Let’s look at a few betting strategies that play into that chaos:
Texas Tech to win Big 12 +1900 (FanDuel)
The Red Raiders were a trendy pick to win the Big 12 in the offseason, causing their odds to hover around +1000 in early August.
But there were skeptics out there who pointed to the fact that Texas Tech caught a lot of breaks in 2022, specifically going 4-0 in one-score games.
Regression was coming, they said.
They were right.
The Red Raiders are 0-2 on the season after losing to Wyoming by two points in Laramie and by eight points to Oregon in a wild game under the lights in Lubbock on Saturday.
The loss to the Ducks was going on at the same time as Texas’ win over Alabama, so not many people would have noticed that Texas Tech caught some terrible luck and had a brutal call go against it en route to a 38-30 loss and non-cover.
As ugly as the 0-2 mark looks for Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders, there’s no real reason to panic. Not yet, at least.
Texas Tech will play FCS Tarleton State in Week 3 to get right, and after that the Red Raiders will open up conference play with a trip to West Virginia on Sept. 23.
And if you look beyond a very winnable game in Morgantown, you’ll notice that the Texas Tech schedule is pretty light.
In addition to West Virginia, the Red Raiders travel to BYU, Kansas and Baylor before closing the show in Texas. Texas Tech avoids Oklahoma and hosts Kansas State and TCU.
You could easily see the Red Raiders navigating this schedule in such a fashion that they’re in the hunt for a Big 12 Championship berth down the stretch.
I understand that folks are cooling on the Red Raiders after a slow start, but if the whole world seemed intrigued by Texas Tech at +1000, why not buy the drift and back them at double the price after a couple of unfortunate non-conference losses?
Washington to win national title +4000 (BetMGM)
This season has a very Kentucky Derby feel to it.
It’s a deep race and everyone handicapper is trying to poke holes in the favorites to find a long shot that can pick up the pieces if things get dusty.
Some folks are pointing to Penn State, others are all in on Texas and there are the usual people getting excited about Notre Dame’s start. But there is another team lurking that could be dangerous.
Collin Wilson’s Action Network power rankings have the Huskies as the seventh-best team in the country, putting them above Penn State, Alabama and USC, and basically on par with Michigan, Oregon and Florida State.
Betting on College Football?
Every team in that bunch, save for Oregon, is sitting well below the price on Washington (+4000, Caesars) despite the fact that Washington’s quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is one of the best signal-callers in the country.
The Huskies look like a fine bet at +4000, which was basically where they sat before the season started.
