2023 Honda Classic Sleeper Picks: Bet Gordon & Yuan at PGA National
The PGA TOUR moves from California to Florida this week with the Honda Classic at PGA National.
This week features one of the toughest courses on TOUR, where few players have reached double-digits under par over the last decade. With water in play on 15 of the 18 holes and bunkers everywhere, approach play will be at a premium at PGA National, especially from beyond 125 yards.
The shift to Florida is great news for players who prefer Bermudagrass greens over Poa annua. It’s also great news for those of us who like longshot bets because Jon Rahm isn’t in the field to wreck the board (again).
Let’s dive into which sleepers at longer than 50-1 have a chance to win or cash prop bets at longer odds this week.
The Honda Classic Sleeper Picks
Will Gordon Outright +7000 (FanDuel) | Top 20 +260 (bet365)
The last time Will Gordon was featured in this column, we bet him to win outright at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which was an experience.
Gordon got to 8-under par through 15 holes at Pebble Beach to become the live betting tournament favorite very briefly before finishing bogey-bogey-triple and fading into the weekend before ultimately withdrawing.
Even after this experience, I remain bullish on Gordon. His tee-to-green game has been solid, and he has a high floor relative to most players in this field (which could be useful if you find him in a matchup against the right player) because he’s above average on approach, off the tee and from the bunkers.
In nine tracked tournaments on TOUR this season, Gordon has not lost more than 0.25 strokes per round on approach, and he has gained strokes off the tee in 8-of-9 such tournaments because of extreme length off the tee and slightly above-average driving accuracy.
His above-average birdie average and bogey avoidance also point to him having success at PGA National as the former Vanderbilt Commodore returns to the South.
If you spook easily, this might not be the best player to back this week, but I’m holding my nose and betting Carl (Yechun) Yuan.
I remain confident that Yuan will break through at some point during his rookie season on TOUR after an incredible season on the Korn Ferry Tour last season (where he won once and had seven top-five finishes in 22 starts).
The shift from the West Coast to Florida should help Yuan with the corresponding move to Bermudagrass greens. Yuan has struggled mightily overall with the flatstick this season, but all three of his made cuts — and three of his top-four putting performances — have come on Bermudagrass.
Yuan has had a few extremely poor weeks on approach, but he also has gained over 0.89 strokes on approach per round in five of his eight tournaments this season. If he strikes the ball like this while avoiding a disaster on the greens, he should have a solid chance of finishing in the top 20 in this watered-down field.
I’m generally higher on him than the market is and have played an escalator for him to finish in the top 40 (+210) and top 20 (+600) at bet365, along with a sprinkle to win outright at FanDuel (+18000).
Hayden Buckley +5500 (FanDuel)
On a course with trouble lurking all around with plenty of water and sand, I like Hayden Buckley this week because of his elite play off the tee.
Buckley ranks fifth on TOUR this season in SG: Off the Tee (0.851) because of his above-average combination of driving distance (57th) and riving accuracy (22nd).
In 10 starts this season, Buckley has ranked above the field average in driving accuracy nine times, and he was just 1% below the field average in the lone tournament in which he did not find the fairway off the tee at an above-average rate.
The TOUR moving to Bermudagrass greens and away from Poa annua greens during the Florida swing should also suit Buckley, who grew up in Tennessee and played his college golf at Missouri.
He also ranks in the top third of the TOUR in bogey avoidance and three-putt avoidance, which will be key at PGA National, where simply getting to double-digits under par is often enough to win.
