Genesis Invitational expert picks and predictions with our PGA pro's best bets for 2024 golf tournament

 PACIFIC PALISADES, CA — We have had six straight 100-1 (or more) winners or more to start the 2024 season! Crazy, I know. It doesn’t matter how you feel about the PGA TOUR, LIV, weather delays, limited fields, or long shot winners. The entire sports world will be fixated on Hollywood and the Genesis Invitational.

Tiger Woods will be competing in his first PGA TOUR event of the season at famed Riviera Country Club. Even more exciting, it seems his health is in the best place it has been since that fateful February day of his car accident three years ago.

The TOUR will tell you this is an elite field and the purse money is increased, but the truth is golf still revolves around Woods. And with the tumultuous world of the PGA TOUR still changing, the familiarity for all fans is arriving at just the right time.

For the third week in a row, my PGA Professional insights are coming from the venue. I’m on property at the Genesis, enjoying Tiger’s return and handicapping player preparation. I love this edge and sharing it with all of you. Just think: Did you see a betting expert on the field at the Super Bowl? Of course not, but my relationship with the PGA TOUR allows it, and as a result, I can pass my inside-the-ropes insights to all of you!

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Genesis Invitational winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Genesis Invitational expert picks and predictions

 Best bet to win: Sam Burns (+2200 on BetMGM)

Sam Burns just finished third at the WMPO, shooting four rounds in the 60s and closing with 64 on Sunday. In a delay-filled event, Burns remained focused. He has three straight top-10s on TOUR over the last four weeks, and plenty of experience at Riviera.

Burns finished third in 2021, mainly thanks to his ability to score from close range. He leads the field in bogey avoidance and can putt Poa greens extremely well. Saving strokes across 72 holes in an elite field is how you separate at the top. When it comes to ball-striking, Burns has gained over two strokes T2G over his last five starts.

Take Patrick Cantlay over Viktor Hovland H2H (+105 on DraftKings)

Cantlay played his college golf at UCLA, just down the road from Riviera. He loves this course and his results have shown it. In six professional starts, he has two top-5 finishes and five in the top 20.

Hovland looked off at Pebble Beach. He was nearly last in around-the-green play, and being on-site, I’m not sure if his wrist is fully healthy. He has a good record here, but recent history has me leaning on Cantlay in this H2H matchup.

Best bet of the week: Tom Hoge to finish in top 30 (+125 on DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is on a heater. He finished sixth at Pebble Beach and 17th in the desert. He shot 68-66 at WMPO over the weekend, and now heads into an event where GIRs and approach play are your biggest asset.

Hoge finished 14th here last year and can definitely putt on Poa. I really like what I have seen from Tom on TOUR these past two weeks, and feel a top-30 finish at Riviera will cash.

 Genesis Invitational odds to win

 Genesis Invitational past winners betting trends

Twenty-eight of the last 31 winners of the Genesis Invitational have finished T22 or better at the Masters. Players who win at Riviera also win at Augusta. Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, and last year’s champion Jon Rahm all own at least one Green Jacket. Strategy and experience count when it comes to playing this week.

Sixteen of the last 18 winners have played at least four times at the Genesis prior to winning. Those who do win here can really strike their golf ball. The last 10 winners of the Genesis gained over eight shots on the field in ball-striking. Strokes gained ball-striking (SG:BS) is a combined measure of strokes gained off-the-tee and approach. At Riviera, fairways are extremely difficult to hit and so are GIRs. Getting the ball in play is imperative and necessary to score.

Since GIRs are hit well below TOUR average, around-the-green acumen counts as well. RCC hosts major championships. If you plan to contend and win, you better have the full complement of skills needed to score on the 11 tough par-4s. Those same 10 winners gained 8.4 strokes on the field in par-4 scoring. In that category, the biggest gain came in the 450-500 range. If you’re like me and looking for the winner, make sure they can also putt on Poa annua greens.

Poa annua grass covers the greens at Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines. Take those great California players and fill your card with them. Bogey avoidance counts, and making five to 10-foot putts on Poa to save par will lead to winning. The last five winners gained an average of four strokes on their competitors. Closing out each hole takes resolve. Unlike Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines, these greens have much more character. Reading and putting them takes prior knowledge and confidence.

 Genesis Invitational: Riviera Country Club course breakdown

Riviera Country Club might be the best non-major championship course on the PGA TOUR. Designed by George Thomas Jr. and William Bell in 1927, the classic course continues to challenge the modern players.

Here are the important details:

• Par 71 measuring 7,322 yards
• The scorecard displays three par-5s (average length 559 yards), four par-3s (Avg. 198 yards), and 11 par-4s (Avg. 441 yards)
• Average green size is 7,500 square feet and they are covered in Poa Annua grass
• The course has Kikuyu rough cut at 2-2.5”
• The course has 58 bunkers and no water hazards

The Los Angeles region has received 8-10 inches of rain since the start of February. The practice-round days have been immaculate, but more wet weather is expected over the weekend. The course feels soft underfoot. It is not nearly as wet as Pebble Beach or TPC Scottsdale, but we won’t see firm and fast conditions. Temperatures have been pretty seasonal, starting in the low-50s each day and rising to the mid-60s.

We have a very small field for this event with 71 players. The top 50 and ties make the cut, along with anyone within 10 shots of the lead. That small of a field will all play during the best part of the day’s weather. It should be an entertaining week as they compete for $20 million along with Tiger Woods. Enjoy the show, it is Hollywood after all!