AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am expert picks and predictions with our PGA pro's best bets for 2024 golf tournament

PEBBLE BEACH, CA — Watching the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am is going to be a completely new experience. Gone are the crazy antics of overhyped amateur golfers, replaced by “signature” status and a $20 million purse.  Don’t get me wrong, the amateurs are still here (at least for a couple of days), but the longtime Pebble Beach TOUR supporters have been rewarded for their TOUR loyalty.  

There have been too many changes to the PGA TOUR schedule to cover them all in this preview, but the AT&T was selected to be one of the “elevated” (now called signature) events. We will see two of these enormous purse events over the next three weeks. The second is the Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles. With the newly heightened status, Pebble Beach Golf Links now has 18 of the top 20 in the OWGR ready to compete.

We didn’t lose the amateur or pro-am aspect altogether — they just won’t play the weekend. Let’s take a moment and break down the new format.

• A field of 80 players will compete for 72 holes.
• During rounds one and two, players will compete with an amateur partner at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill Golf Links.
• Once the weekend starts, the amateurs stop, and the PGA TOUR’s best will compete on the iconic Pebble Beach.

I cannot wait to see the TOUR set up Rounds 3 and 4 without amateurs in the competition. 

Over three and a half million dollars goes to the winner, so TOUR officials had to drop the chicanery on Saturday and Sunday. The average winning score of this event has been 18 under par over the last decade. Six of the last 10 winners started the week with odds of +3500 or less. Let’s face it, this place hosts major championships. I know it has been a wild list of winners to date with long shots leading the way, but the best are here to officially start the season over the next three weeks.

I’m on site to give you my PGA Professional breakdown of the course and conditions. As usual, it is cold and damp in Monterey for the pro-am week. The courses are really soft, and even though they won’t play too much longer, the elements are less than ideal for scoring. We are on the Pacific Ocean, so hopefully the forecast changes, but this is not fun. Both courses are set on the coastline and not protected. Each takes you out to the water for a substantial part of the scorecard.

It will be incredibly fun to watch these great players compete against Mother Nature in one of the world’s most iconic golf settings. Experience is key to winning, as every winner since 2006 has finished 21st or better before winning. Something about the positional play off the tee combined with an endless number of elevation changes eliminates rookies. For a further breakdown with picks and predictions, keep reading.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am expert picks and predictions

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am Best bet to win: Max Homa (+1800 on BetMGM)

Four of Max Homa’s six PGA TOUR wins have come in his home state of California. Homa has yet to win at Pebble Beach, but he has come close with three straight top-15 finishes. The University of California at Berkeley alumni knows the region and its golf courses. He obviously putts Poa annua well, and his elite ball-striking led to a 13th-place finish at Torrey on Sunday. With eight straight top-15 results dating back to last season, we know Max’s game is ready to win number seven overall and number five at home. 

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am best bet to finish top 30: Adam Hadwin (+120 on DraftKings)

Adam Hadwin has finished inside the top 15 in two of his past three starts. In four starts at Pebble Beach, he has two more top-20s. Hadwin’s west-coast success stems from his excellent Poa annua putting. The Canadian has also proven he can handle the elements. Tail Adam this week as his wedge game is ranked top 5 in the field.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am best bet to finish top 40: Mav McNealy (+100 on DraftKings)

Born in nearby Portola Valley, CA, Maverick McNealy knows the Monterey Peninsula. In five starts, he has two top-5 finishes. The strength of his resumé at Pebble Beach comes from his ability to use his putter. On Poa annua, he’s one of the best in the field. Last week at the Farmers, he finished T37 on a much more difficult course. Last year, this event marked the start of his injury issues. You know McNealy would love nothing more than to solidify his PGA TOUR comeback at home. 

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds to win

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am course breakdown

Pebble Beach is the third-shortest course these guys will face all season. The true character of this seaside layout comes on approach. These are the smallest greens (on average) on the PGA TOUR. They won’t be coming in with long irons, but it’s worth mentioning how tight the targets really are. Throw in coastline conditions and it gets really difficult. Familiarity with the landscape is key to being decisive in attacking the greens and finding the correct position off the tee.

Accuracy off the tee has a strong correlation to success here. Pebble Beach has the lowest average driving distance on TOUR. Players select specific landing areas and stick to them. In fact, the entire field does. If you sat on one hole and watched, you would be amazed at the consistency of their OTT play. The main reason for laying up to a specific landing zone is the need to play from the fairway on approach. You cannot expect to create birdie chances from the rough. It just won't happen here.

Even with less than driver off the tee, most of the approaches will come with a wedge in hand. Wedge proximity is another differentiating skill at the AT&T. Fourteen of the 20 par-4s are under 430 yards in length. That’s open season on flagsticks if you come in from the short grass. The last 10 winners have gained an average of four strokes against their competition with their iron game. Leading the field in GIRs is the simplest path to winning.

I believe bogey avoidance should be a factor. These greens are really small on TV, (and TV adds 10 pounds!). Looking at them as I walk the links, they are even smaller. This is why the approach plays such a significant role. Even the best will miss some, and when they do they must get up and down to keep themselves in contention for Sunday. Pebble Beach GL has 116 bunkers. They are everywhere, and saving par from the sand will need to happen. Our best bets are not only great with a wedge from the fairway on approach, but also around the green.

The largest winner gains (after approach) come on the Poa annua greens. Tiger Woods won the 2000 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach by 15 strokes because he made almost every putt from inside 10 feet. Soft conditions on already-bumpy Poa annua will create maddening conditions. Getting the most out of your flat-stick from close range will be vital. The last five winners gained over three strokes (on average) against the field on the putting surfaces. No doubt our best bets this week will represent the best-proven horses for this course. They will putt Poa successfully and have radar-like approach capabilities with their wedges. Patience off the tee will be complemented by their acumen around the green. That’s the recipe, and here are the picks.