2023 MLB Mock Draft: First round predictions and pick projections

07 July 2023

The 2023 MLB draft is only days away, taking place on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday as part of the All-Star Game weekend. Conventional wisdom has several players and teams locked together and while order may move slightly, there are few surprises expected.

It is of course only guesswork on any of the press corps’ part as franchises could shift their criteria at any moment, but with teams meeting with agents over the past weeks and communicating their draft needs, much of what each team is looking for is a known quantity.

The College World Series has lit up the draft with LSU expected to provide the top two picks by most experts. While they were the top prospects throughout the college baseball season, had they not performed so spectacularly in Omaha, we could be looking at a vastly different top five.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates

Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU

While many have confidently picked Dylan Crews to go first overall, the Pirates seem intrigued by the two-way possibilities of the most dominant pitcher coming out of college ball. The Pirates have been on the lookout for a big bat, and if that is their only criteria then they cold still opt for LSU team mate Crews. But with the possibility of another Shohei Ohtani on the cards, I feel like they will go for Skenes. At worst, they get a future Cy Young pitcher out of it.

2. Washington Nationals

Dylan Crews, CF, LSU

While the Nationals would prefer Skenes, particularly with their traditional liking for taking pitchers early, if the Pirates nab him then they won’t get into any mental gymnastics over the second pick. They will grab Dylan Crews with no other player even being considered.

3. Detroit Tigers

Wyatt Langford, LF, Florida

The general feeling is that Detroit wants a strong college bat and Langford is the top of what is out there after Skenes and Crews go off the board. They could extend that to one of the other prospects like TCU’s Brayden Taylor or Virginia’s Kyle Teel, but I think that they will play the straight bat and take Langford here.

4. Texas Rangers

Walker Jenkins, RF, South Brunswick HS (North Carolina)

Texas spent the free agency period looking at established pitchers and are all-in on bats for the draft. They seem to be keen on getting a young prep player, but there are a few college players that they could go for instead. While it is an unlikely possibility, less than 5%, they could look at Tré Morgan from LSU, who has the best bat-to-ball contact hitting in the draft. His lack of power sees most predictors have him in the early second round, but he could sneak up the order for a team looking for a true hitter.

5. Minnesota Twins

Max Clark, CF, Franklin Community HS (Indiana)

The Twins are another team on the lookout for a prep bat and Clark has four of the five tools with potential for development. I think that they will grab him here and in fact, he is an option for every team from now on if he doesn’t go this high. Minnesota have a few other players that they are looking at, all of them prep players, but only Clark or Walter Jenkins have the toolset to go top ten.

6. Oakland Athletics

Kyle Teel, C, Virginia

Oakland have a shopping list of needs, but they are all about college bats. To be honest, Teel, TCU’s Brayden Taylor, and Ole Miss’ Jacob Gonzalez are almost interchangeable here. I think that they will jump on Teel, as he is the biggest bat of that group, but they could opt for either of the other two here.

7. Cincinnati Reds

Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU

The Reds are similarly looking for college bats, although if either of the prep players slip from the top five, they could take that road. Cincinnati is the least fixated on one trait, and could similarly go for a pitcher, where they will discount prep arms entirely. Tennessee’s Chase Dollander and Wake Forest’s Rhett Lowder would be options for the Reds as well. But in the end, I think that they will go for Taylor here, with Teel or Gonzalez as a backup plan.

8. Kansas City Royals

Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon

A phenomenal hitter, Wilson slashed .412/.461/.635 with just five strikeouts this year. Wonderful discernment at the plate and a consensus All-American at middle infield make him a solid top-ten prospect. The Royals are not set on a single player, showing interest in several college and prep bats, but Wilson is one of the best bets.

9. Colorado Rockies

Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest

The Rockies are all about pitching and Lowder dominated the college game for most of the season. He has great speed control and maybe the best changeup of the draft class. His speed doesn’t top out as high as Dollander but the Rockies like control over heat in their pitchers, so they should grab him without thinking twice.

10. Miami Marlins

Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Ole Miss

With several teams in the top ten looking for college bats, Gonzalez could go as high as five in this draft, but like Taylor and Teel, if he hasn’t gone yet, this is where he will land. This is another spot where Tré Morgan might sneak into the first round as well as an outsider.

11. Los Angeles Angels

Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt

12. Arizona Diamondbacks

Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee

13. Chicago Cubs

Colin Houck, 3B, Parkview HS (Georgia)

14. Boston Red Sox

Matt Shaw, 2B, Maryland

15. Chicago White Sox

Tommy Troy, 3B, Stanford

16. San Francisco Giants

Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS (Oregon)