2023 MLB odds, lines, bets, picks for Monday, May 1 by proven model: This four-way parlay pays well over 9-1

The San Diego Padres return to Petco Park for the first time in nearly two weeks when they host the Cincinnati Reds in the opener of a three-game series on Monday (9:40 p.m. ET). San Diego (15-14) has not played at home since posting a 1-0 victory over Atlanta on Apr. 19 as it won three of four at Arizona and lost two of three to the Cubs in Chicago before sweeping a two-game set against San Francisco in Mexico City over the weekend. Cincinnati (12-16) continues its six-game road trip after having its five-game winning streak snapped Sunday in Oakland. On Monday, San Diego's Blake Snell (0-4, 5.48 ERA) takes the mound against Cincinnati's Luke Weaver (0-1, 7.71). The Padres are -225 favorites (risk $225 to win $100) in the latest MLB odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Reds are +185 underdogs. The over/under for total runs scored is 8.5. 

The game is one of six on the MLB schedule for Monday evening. Elsewhere in the majors, the Los Angeles Dodgers (-165) seek their fourth consecutive victory when they host the Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago Cubs (-135) attempt to end their three-game losing streak when they visit the Washington Nationals. Before making any MLB picks or parlays, be sure to .

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons, and it is on a 28-22 run dating back to the end of last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

For Monday, the model has locked in four confident MLB best bets for games that begin at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. If you successfully parlay the picks, you'd be looking at a payout of well over 9-1. You can see the model's top MLB picks at SportsLine.

Top MLB picks today

After simulating every game on Monday 10,000 times, the model is picking the Dodgers (-165) to defeat the Phillies. Los Angeles appears to have found its groove at home as it swept its three-game series against visiting St. Louis over the weekend after losing two of three in each of its previous two sets at Dodger Stadium. The club posted a 6-3 victory over the Cardinals in the finale and scored only one of the runs on a hit as three were recorded on groundouts, one on a sacrifice fly and one on a wild pitch.

The Dodgers are first in the National League with 47 home runs and have gone deep in 22 of their 29 games this season but have gone without a blast in back-to-back contests for the first time. Max Muncy is the major-league leader with 11 shots while 25% of rookie James Outman's 28 hits this season have been homers. 

The 25-year-old center fielder has seven other extra-base hits, including three of Los Angeles' six triples. Mookie Betts has belted four homers this season and has fared well against Philadelphia's Taijuan Walker, going 5-for-10 versus the right-hander over his career. You can see who else to back here.

How to make MLB parlays for May 1

The model also locked in three other best bets for Monday you need to see. You can see the model's MLB Monday best bets and parlay only at SportsLine.