2023 MLB picks, odds, best bets for Monday, July 31 by proven model: This three-way parlay returns 6-1

The Chicago Cubs attempt to continue their surge toward the top of the NL Central when they host the division-leading Cincinnati Reds in the opener of a four-game series on Monday (8:05 p.m. ET) at Wrigley Field. The Cubs (53-52) put together an eight-game winning streak before suffering a 3-0 loss at St. Louis on Sunday, which left them four games out of first place. Cincinnati (58-49) routed the Dodgers 9-0 on Sunday to improve to 3-3 on its 10-game road trip and move one-half game ahead of Milwaukee in the NL Central. On Monday, Chicago's Marcus Stroman (10-7, 3.51 ERA) takes the mound opposite Cincinnati's Andrew Abbott (6-2, 1.90).

The Cubs are -121 favorites (risk $121 to win $100) in the latest MLB odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Reds are +101 underdogs. The over/under for total runs is 8, and the game is one of 10 on the MLB schedule for Monday evening. Elsewhere, the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles (+120) visit the rival Toronto Blue Jays, who own one of the AL wild-card spots, and the Miami Marlins (-115) host the Philadelphia Phillies in a battle between clubs that are in the thick of the wild-card race. Before locking in any MLB picks or parlays, be sure to .

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It entered Week 19 of the 2023 MLB season 49-39 on all top-rated MLB picks this season and has excelled on top-rated run-line picks, going 11-3 (+504). Anybody following has seen big returns.

For Monday, the model has locked in three confident MLB best bets for games that begin at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. If you successfully parlay the picks, you'd be looking at a payout of 6-1. You can only see the model's MLB picks at SportsLine. 

Top MLB picks today

After simulating every game on Monday 10,000 times, the model is picking the Cubs (-121) to defeat the Reds. Chicago's upswing has been fueled by Cody Bellinger, who signed a one-year contract with the team in December after three dismal seasons with the Dodgers. The 2019 NL MVP, whose highest batting average in the last three years was .239, is hitting .314 with 15 home runs and 46 RBI in 2023.

Bellinger has been exceptional at the plate in July, batting a major league-best .406 with eight homers and 24 RBI in 25 games. Yan Gomes and Christopher Morel also have been hot for the Cubs of late as they enter the series opener with hitting streaks of eight games and seven games, respectively. Gomes has recorded seven RBI during his run while Morel has driven in six runs over his tear. Meanwhile, Dansby Swanson is batting .350 with three multi-hit performances in five contests against Cincinnati this season. See the model's top MLB picks here.