2023 MLB picks, odds, best bets for Monday, August 21 by proven model: This three-way parlay returns 6-1
The 10-game Monday MLB schedule features two key matchups -- one in each league -- as the MLB Wild Card races remain tight. In the AL, the Seattle Mariners have moved within a half-game of the Houston Astros, who trail the Wild Card-leading Tampa Bay Rays by five. The Astros come off a three-game sweep at the hands of Seattle, and now they host the Boston Red Sox, who sit 3.5 games behind them in the AL race. In the NL, the Philadelphia Phillies lead the Wild Card race by 2.5 games over the San Francisco Giants. Those teams meet in a three-game series at Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park starting Monday at 6:40 p.m. ET.
First pitch in Red Sox vs. Astros is set for 8:10 p.m. ET, and Houston is the -130 favorite in the latest SportsLine consensus MLB odds. Boston is priced at +109, and the over/under for total runs scored is 9. The Giants vs. Phillies odds list Philadelphia as the -146 favorite, with San Francisco priced at +123, and the over/under at 8.5. Before you lock in your MLB picks or parlays, be sure to .
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It entered Week 22 of the 2023 MLB season 65-53 on all top-rated MLB picks this season and has excelled on top-rated run-line picks, going 14-4 (+640). Anybody following has seen big returns.
For Monday, the model has locked in three confident MLB best bets for games that begin at 8:10 p.m. ET or later. If you successfully parlay the picks, you'd be looking at a payout of almost 6-1. You can see the model's MLB picks only at SportsLine.
Top MLB picks today
The model is all over the Astros to beat the Red Sox on Monday. Houston has a sour taste in its mouth after being swept by Seattle, which prompted the Astros to hold a tense team meeting following Sunday's 7-6 loss. They fell behind early, with Hunter Brown allowing six runs in the first three innings. Houston scored five in the bottom of the third but couldn't salvage the victory. SportsLine's model is expecting the Astros to bounce back, as they are winning in over 70% of its simulations.
The Astros are expected to have Cristian Javier (8-2, 4.49 ERA) on the mound Monday opposite Boston's James Paxton (7-3, 3.34). Javier has given up lots of home runs lately, but he has allowed just four all season at Minute Maid Park. The right-hander is 4-1 with a 3.19 ERA at home. The Astros are 51-40 as a favorite this season and 44-38 in non-division games. Houston is averaging 4.86 runs per game, eighth in MLB, and has a 3.85 team ERA (sixth). See the model's top MLB picks here.
How to make Monday MLB parlays
The model also locked in two other best bets for Monday, including a confident run-total play. You can see the model's MLB Monday best bets and parlay only at SportsLine.
