2023 MLB playoffs: Rays vs. Rangers odds, line, Wild Card Series Game 1 picks, predictions from proven model

The Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays open the 2023 MLB playoffs on Tuesday when they meet in an American League Wild Card Series Game 1 matchup at Tropicana Field in Tampa, Fla. The Rangers tied for first in the AL West with Houston at 90-72, but lost the tiebreaker to the Astros. The Rays (99-63), meanwhile, finished two games behind Baltimore in the AL East. Tampa Bay was solid at home this season, going 53-28, while Texas was 40-41 on the road.

First pitch is set for 3:08 p.m. ET. The Rangers lead the all-time series 115-99, including a 6-3 edge in the playoffs. The Rays are the -151 favorites on the money line (risk $151 to win $100) in the latest Rangers vs. Rays odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 7.5. Before making any Rays vs. Rangers picks, be sure to .

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It entered the 2023 MLB playoffs 91-73 on all top-rated MLB picks this season and has excelled on top-rated run-line picks, going 18-6 (+766). Anybody following has seen big returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Rays vs. Rangers and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB betting lines and trends for Rangers vs. Rays:

• Rangers vs. Rays money line: Texas +129. Tampa Bay -151
• Rangers vs. Rays over/under: 7.5 runs
• Rangers vs. Rays run line: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+143)
• TEX: Returned -239 to money-line backers this season 
• TB: Returned +225 to money-line backers this season 
• Rangers vs. Rays picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back the Rays

Tampa Bay is expected to send right-hander Tyler Glasnow (10-7, 3.53 ERA) to the mound. In 21 starts, he has walked just 37 batters, while striking out 162. He is coming off a stellar performance in a 5-0 win at Boston on Wednesday. In that game, he pitched five innings, allowing two hits and one walk, while striking out nine. He has won seven of his last 11 outings, all decisions. His last no-decision was July 20. He beat Texas 8-3 on June 9, going six innings and allowing just one run on one hit, walking three and striking out six.

Helping lead the Tampa Bay offense is first baseman Yandy Diaz. In 137 games this season, Diaz is batting .330 with 35 doubles, 22 homers and 78 RBI. Over his last four games, he went 7-for-9 with two homers and three RBI. In six games against Texas this season, Diaz batted .250 with two walks. He has feasted on Rangers pitching throughout his career and in 27 games is hitting .357 with five doubles, one triple, one home run and seven RBI with 11 walks. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why you should back the Rangers

Left-hander Jordan Montgomery (4-2, 2.79 ERA) will start for Texas. In 11 starts since being acquired from St. Louis, he has allowed 21 earned runs on 61 hits in 67.2 innings, while walking 13 and striking out 58. In his last outing, a 3-2 loss at Seattle on Thursday, Montgomery received a no decision in six innings of work. He allowed one earned run on five hits, while walking two and striking out five. In the decision before on Sept. 23, he defeated Seattle by allowing no runs on five hits in seven innings. He walked two and struck out six. He is 4-4 lifetime against Tampa Bay.

Shortstop Corey Seager is among the team leaders on offense, and finished the regular season with a .327 batting average. He had 42 doubles, 33 homers, 96 RBI and 88 runs scored. Seager had hits in eight of the final 10 games he played in. He has faced the Rays six times this season and is hitting .320 with two homers and eight RBI. In 16 career games against Tampa Bay, he is hitting .278 with four homers and 19 RBI. See which team to back here.

How to make Rangers vs. Rays picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 8.9 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all of the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.