2023 Newmarket July Festival Tips: Trio of selections including July Cup pick
The flat season calendar is undoubtedly the envy of jumps racing fans, with a swathe of brilliant festivals coming thick and fast as the summer rolls on. Next up is the July Festival at Newmarket, with the meeting reaching its crescendo on Saturday when some of the quickest horses around clash for the Group 1 July Cup. Here we take a look at some of the early entries and provide three tips, with a pick from each raceday…
It's been a season to forget so far for Charlie Appleby and his team, although the massive Godolphin backed operation are still ticking over quite well in the day to day racing with their strike-rate. Big race successes have been rare, however, and Appleby will be hoping this hometown festival can bring some joy for the stable. I think he can kick the week off in the perfect fashion as I am quite keen on the chances of CASTLE WAY in the week's opening race, the Bahrain Trophy.
Last seen winning a handicap at Newmarket on the Rowley Mile course, he was an authoritative winner that day under William Buick, taking the race from Circle Of Fire (also entered here) by a length and 3/4s. The manner in which Buick decided he trusted the stamina of his mount from a long way out to take the lead proved the faith team Appleby have that they have a thorough stayer on their hands, and although Saint George did run well behind the obviously progressive Gregory at Royal Ascot, I'm of the opinion a further three furlongs to gallop into will bring Castle Way on further.
Godolphin and Appleby have a good record in the St Leger and do not have an obvious player for the Doncaster Classic at this stage, but Castle Way can step up to the plate. This looks a hot race and Castle Way was supposed to head to Ascot but skipped the King Edward VII, presumably to come here fresh and to be cherry ripe for a late season campaign over staying trips on softer ground, which looks sure to suit this big galloping sort.
George Boughey's rapidly improving filly Via Sistina heads the market for this race, and there are a multitude of reasons to like this horse, mainly her propensity to perform at a very high level on rain softened ground. The weather forecast, however, is fairly inconclusive for Newmarket this week and there must be a risk that either the ground is not soft enough so she is pulled out, or the ground is soft enough for her to run but not to be able to show quite the same level of form as she did at the Curragh back down at a mile. I'm of the opinion this is a middle distance filly, although connections insist she is trip versatile, so with her chalked up as 2/1 favourite there must be value elsewhere.
Nashwa looks set to be her main market rival and there will be plenty willing to forgive her reappearance on home soil at Newcastle recently, but there was something about the way she did not see that race out I really didn't like. At her best of course she is an excellent racehorse and she is in very capable hands, but I wouldn't be surprised if her best days are behind her. I would be more fearful of Remarquee, who although always looking second best to Tahiyra at Royal Ascot was only beaten a length in the end and did lose a shoe in the run. She is a bona-fide miler but her 1000 Guineas flop must be a concern for those willing to take a chance on her at 7/2.
Random Harvest finished ahead of Prosperous Voyage at Royal Ascot last time out but the 2022 winner can reverse those placings here in a race that will suit. I very nearly went with her but was tempted in by COPPICE for connections of last season's shock beaten favourite Inspiral. She is still unexposed after just four starts and has only tasted defeat once for Juddmonte and the Gosdens. That was at Newmarket on the Rowley Mile when beaten into 10th at 2/1 by Mammas Girl in the Nell Gwyn, but since then she has bounced back with a win at Newcastle before a career best to take the Sandringham at Royal Ascot. She was much the best that day in the handicap and can take this step up to Group 1 class in her stride to start to fulfil the potential her pedigree suggests she is capable of.
The July Cup is often won by a front runner or a horse that is prominent throughout, which may scare off plenty when first looking at the race and seeing SHAQUILLE priced up as favourite. This may seem counter intuitive given Julie Camacho's colt's stunning success at Royal Ascot in the Commonwealth Cup, but obviously the reason his win was so impressive was the fact he achieved it despite missing the break.
At Newmarket he cannot afford to do this as the track lends itself far less than Ascot to those who have ground to make up, but I am willing to forgive the horse this one misdemeanour at the start at Ascot and assume Camacho and the expert team have been studiously training their stable star to break at least on terms with his rivals. The way in which he kicked on the turbo at Ascot to reel in and go past Little Big Bear (who is 50/50 to reoppose here after a setback) was phenomenal and this is clearly a horse oozing with talent.
A look at every other start in his fledgling career shows his normal race style is to be on the pace, so with Ascot hopefully an anomaly he looks the most likely winner here. I'd say if he hadn't missed the break and had just won the Commonwealth Cup in normal style he would be a fair bit shorter for Newmarket glory, and the connections of the second favourite vs those of our selection are playing a part in the current odds too. At 15/8 this rapid son of Charm Spirit rates a fair bet to etch his name onto the esteemed honour roll here, as I do think the three year olds hold sway over the older sprinters this season.
