July Festival tips: Horses to follow and how to win on the July Course at Newmarket

What's the best piece of betting advice for the July Festival?

Matt Brocklebank: Just like Epsom, York, Ascot and the Rowley Mile along the A1304 (aka Barbara Stradbroke Avenue), the July Course at Newmarket has its own quirks, but the punting philosophy remains the same. Find an angle and trust your own judgement.

There'll be a lot of 'boys in blue' chatter through the week - and no doubt Charlie Appleby will be extremely well represented at a meeting that has served the Godolphin outfit so well over the years - but if the market is all over an Appleby horse then that's bound to create some potential value elsewhere in the race, so don't be shepherded along by the betting.

Hold the front page (!) Appleby isn't going to win every race and he's not the only trainer who targets this fixture either. For instance, Jane Chapple-Hyam ended last year 0-24 on the Rowley Mile but was 4-21 on this track and she's had a couple of seconds from just four runners here so far in 2023.

There are nuggets to be found if you're willing to ignore the shortcuts so the bottom line has to be: stick to your punting principals, block out the noise and put the effort in if you want to give yourself the best possible chance of being successful.

Andy Asquith: I personally tend to stay away from the pattern races, which usually produce small fields and can therefore result in slanted markets – the Princess of Wales’s Stakes on Thursday is a prime example.

The majority of my bets this week will be in the handicaps and, while figuring them out is definitely more time consuming, the potential benefits of doing can be handsome.

The ability to see out the trip on the July Course is essential, an undulating track which has an uphill finish, but the pace often holds up, particularly over trips at a mile or shorter, so finding horses who race prominently is often advantageous.

Ben Linfoot: Because of its position in the calendar I think this meeting, more than most high-profile meetings, can be the stage for the rapid improver.

This is the time of year for three-year-olds getting the weight-for-age, for late maturing types who have been lightly-raced so far this season and for two-year-olds who missed Royal Ascot to suddenly burst onto the scene.

There can be market shocks, great for my punting style, and I tend to be less concerned if a fancy seemingly has a good deal to find on ratings.

Is there a two-year-old you're interested in backing?

MB: Can't guarantee I'll be having a bet but, drawing on my point from above, there may be some value against the Appleby hot-pot Star Of Mystery in Friday's Duchess Of Cambridge. She looked the business against inferior rivals when readily winning a Listed race over course and distance at the start of the month but will be meeting stronger opposition this time.

I thought Persian Dreamer ran better than the bare form indicates when fourth in the Albany at Royal Ascot and runner-up Matrika has already come out to land a Group 2 at the Curragh, so it may be a race to throw up more winners.

AA: I tend to stay away from the juvenile races at this meeting as a rule, but if he runs, then City of Troy should take plenty of beating in the Superlative Stakes on Saturday.

He only made his debut at the beginning of this month, but he was well backed, and made a striking impression, beating another promising newcomer in some style. City of Troy looked better the further he went, clocking some nice sectionals in the closing stages, and he is just one of two entries for Aidan O’Brien (he hasn’t had a runner in the last two renewals).

BL: Havana Grey’s progeny burst into life in the July of last year and he had a winner at this meeting with 12/1 newcomer Funny Story.

I’ll be keeping an eye on his juvenile progeny this week and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Clive Cox’s Jasour took a major step forward in the Group 2 Kingdom Of Bahrain July Stakes on Thursday.

His Nottingham win is working out well and he’s had 39 days to strengthen up since then, while Cox trained Konchek to be second to Advertise in this race five years ago for the same owner, a horse who made a massive leap in form terms himself.

Give us one handicapper you think could really step forward this week...

MB: It's pretty clear that whatever may have been troubling some of the William Haggas horses earlier in the year has now blown over and Seendid looks a horse to keep on side ahead of his handicap debut this week.

With entries at Newmarket, York and Ascot on Friday, his final destination is eagerly awaited but if he makes the cut for the bet365 Handicap on the July Course - a race Haggas won two years ago with Dubai Honour - then this full-brother to Group 1 winner Nezwaah is going to be a significant player.

AA: The Charlie Hills-trained Bodorgan is a horse who I’m sure is on a good mark and I’ll be giving him another chance in the final race on Thursday.

He looked a good prospect when opening his account on the Rowley Mile last season and shaped much better than the bare result on his return at Haydock. He was well backed at Sandown last time but that clearly wasn’t his running. His rider didn't look happy from an early stage and he just plugged on after coming off the bridle a long way out. I think he will leave that running well behind.

BL: I’m sure Jamie Osborne will win a decent pot at some stage with new recruit Apparate who put in a mighty run to be second on his stable debut at Doncaster last month following 587 days off.

He made the well-treated Aimeric pull out all the stops and though the bounce factor does have to be taken into account he has had a nice six-week break since Doncaster.

Off 91 he still looks well treated and with rock-solid July Course handicap form in his back pocket, as well as the step up to 1m6f being firmly in his favour, he’s on the radar if he runs in the bet365 Trophy on Friday (also has Ascot entry on Saturday).

Is there an antepost angle ahead of this week's action?

MB: Nostrum makes his return from an injury setback in the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes over a mile, which could potentially tee him up for a shot at the Sussex Stakes early next month.

He's 20/1 with a handful of firms for the top-class contest at Goodwood which is going to look quite big if he delivers on his juvenile promise and wins readily here. Whether I'd want to be taking on Paddington antepost, however, is another matter entirely.

AA: The Bahrain Trophy can have an impact on the St Leger and one horse who may well shorten further with a good display is Tower of London.

He has proved very progressive this season since moving up in trip, confirming he is on a steep upward curve when winning a handicap at Down Royal last time, forging clear in the closing stages.

This even longer trip in the Bahrain Trophy seems sure to suit and he will likely be challenging for favouritism in the final classic of the season with another victory.

BL: I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Imperial Emperor cut for several races after the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes on Thursday.

Unbeaten and beautifully bred, he looks the real deal and if he beats Nostrum with a bit in hand the layers will quickly be running for cover as he’s bred for further than a mile. He’s a lovely long-term middle-distance prospect and 50/1 for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe might look a big price in a few days’ time.

Who is your July Cup fancy?

MB: It's fantastic to see northern racing represented so strongly in the July Cup and at the odds I'd just about prefer Azure Blue over market leader Shaquille, who certainly wouldn't want to be reproducing his dramatic Royal Ascot start here.

At a massive price, Emaraaty Ana - another trained in Yorkshire - is going to spring back to life at some stage this season and he was sixth in this event at 66/1 12 months ago. Kevin Ryan's Brando ran big races in the July Cup for a bunch of years in a row, including when third at 28/1 in 2017, and I might want a piece of Emaraaty Ana to hit the frame come the day as he's clearly extremely talented when putting it all together.

AA: Aidan O’Brien stated on Monday that Little Big Bear is just ’50-50’ to run in the July Cup and, as a result, Shaquille has shortened into a general 7/4. However, he fluffed the start at Royal Ascot, and if something similar happens on the July Course, he will find it much harder to make up ground.

Therefore, at the prices, I’d rather side with Azure Blue, who looked very good when winning the Duke of York Stakes in May. Connections decided not to supplement her for anything at Royal Ascot and she arrives fresher than most as a result. Michael Dods does very well with such types and she is a course-and-distance winner, while she is also three from three on the Rowley Mile.

BL: I think Shaquille will be tough to beat if he breaks on terms and though that’s obviously a concern I think the market has got him right at a best of 15/8. He looks the most exciting sprinter in the field.

If there are some extra places on offer come the weekend I may consider Art Power each-way at a big price. His inconsistent profile will put off many but six furlongs at Ascot is not his bag and he’ll be much happier in this race which really should play to his strengths.

Two years ago he led the field with half a furlong to go after racing alone on the far side and his win at the Curragh two starts ago was a career-best, so he’s tempting enough at big odds.

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