2023 Northumberland Plate Tips
The most valuable race staged on an artificial track in Britain will take place at Newcastle on Saturday, as 20 top stayers battle it out in the Northumberland Plate. This historic two-mile handicap was first staged in 1833, and was switched from turf when Newcastle opened their all-weather track in 2016.
Here's our free guide to the 2023 Northumberland Plate, including the latest odds, key recurring trends and our best betting tips.
2023 Northumberland Plate Odds
2023 Northumberland Plate Trends
- 15 of the last 16 winners had run at least once that season
- 15 of the last 16 winners either won or placed last time out
- 14 of the last 16 winners had either won around Newcastle or were having their first start at the track
- 13 of the last 16 winners were either 4, 5 or 6-years-old
- 12 of the last 16 winners returned an SP of 14/1 or less
- 12 of the last 16 winners had won at Class 2 level or above
- 12 of the last 16 winners had won over 2m or further (3 of the other 4 were having their first start over 2m)
- 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 95 or higher
In my preview last year, I pointed out that a wide draw has proven advantageous in recent years. Trueshan managed to win from central draw in stall ten - while also carrying a Herculean weight of 10-8 to victory - making him the fifth winner in the last six years to win from a double-figure stall.
I'd be wary of any runner drawn low. Tom Marquand has already been jocked up on Post Impressionist, but if the trends are to be trusted, then the fact he hasn't run for 267 days has to count against the ante-post favourite.
2023 Northumberland Plate Tip 1 - Zoffee
Horses who ran at Royal Ascot haven't got a great record in this handicap. However, that's the only real negative that you can put against the name of ZOFFEE, who ran out a clear-cut winner of the Northumberland Vase here at Newcastle 12 months ago.
Since joining Hugo Palmer, Zoffee has only run poorly once in nine outings. Ben Curtis' mount finished fourth in the Cesarewitch on his final start of last season. Zoffee then kicked off this term with a narrow defeat in the Chester Vase off 93, before placing a close sixth in the Ascot Stakes on day one of the Royal Meeting.
Despite his advancing years, Palmer's seven-year-old has registered two career-best efforts on his first two starts this season. Zoffee won the Vase carrying 9-09 12 months ago and he'll carry a lovely weight of just 9-00 on Saturday. Being drawn out in stall 16 seems ideal too.
2023 Northumberland Plate Tip 2 - Aztec Empire
Another interesting entrant who landed a kind wide draw out in stall 18 is Andrew Balding's AZTEC EMPIRE who, prior to two poor runs at Kempton and Newbury, had looked like a stayer on the up.
Aztec Empire bolted up by seven lengths to win a decent maiden at Kempton in January. On his first start over two miles, Oisin Murphy's mount ran out a ready winner over plenty of quality stayers like Withhold, Aced It and Solent Gateway.
Balding's four-year-old struggled in a tactical, small-field renewal of the Queen's Prize in April and clearly hated soft ground on his return to turf at Newbury. Balding has freshened his four-year-old up since that run back in April and leading claimer Harry Davies comes in to take a handy three pounds off his back. I have no doubt that Aztec Empire is better than his current rating of 89.
