A 20-1 tip for the Northumberland Plate

All-weather racing is usually not for me: it too often serves up poor quality fare featuring either horses past their prime or horses who are simply never going to have a prime worth mentioning. However, the one all-weather race that I do study in depth each year is the Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate and that is because, with prize money of more than £80,000 for the winner, it attracts entries from some of the best staying handicappers.

As a result of scrutinising the entries that came out this week, I am having my first antepost bet of the flat season on a horse I am convinced is overpriced in in the race. Zoffee ran a superb race exactly a week ago in the tote Chester Cup on his first run of the season.

He split two well-handicapped horses, the winner Metier and the third horse Call My Bluff, both of whom had the advantage of prep runs. The ground would also have been much softer than that which Hugo Palmer’s seven-year-old gelding prefers. He has gone up 2 lbs in the ratings for that Chester run, but that’s more than fair.

Zoffee is a wonderfully consistent horse who also ran a fine race to be fourth to Run for Oscar in the Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket at the end of last season. He’s been in my ‘horse tracker’ ever since and he seems to be improving with age.

However, the main reason I fancy him strongly is that he won the Northumberland Vase Handicap – the consolation race for the Northumberland Plate – last June, and his canny handler has had this race in mind for him ever since, something Palmer confirmed in a recent stable tour. 

That run, 11 months ago, proved, of course, that the horse handles Newcastle’s all-weather surface. Back Zoffee each way for the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle on 1 July, taking the 20-1 with bet365. If you don’t have a bet365 account, the 16-1 with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair fixed odds is also worth taking.

The sad decline of BBC Radio 4

My one worry is that Palmer decides to target one of the big Royal Ascot races at the end of June, perhaps the Ascot Stakes, with Zoffee – as the horse is equally happy on turf as on an artificial surface. Hopefully, though, Palmer decides to keep the horse fresh for the big all-weather pot in six weeks’ time. Hopefully, too, jockey Ben Curtis, who gets on so well with the horse, will be able to take the ride. If Zoffee does line up for the Northumberland Plate, I would expect him to go off at a single-figure price.

The big race this weekend is the Group 1 Al ShaqabLockinge Stakes at Newbury (Saturday 3.35pm) over a mile. I fancy My Prospero to land this valuable prize for his in-form trainer William Haggas. However, his fitness has to be taken on trust, and so, at odds of only 5-1, I am not going to ‘play’ in this competitive 13-runner contest. I am always happy to just watch and enjoy a race of this quality without any financial involvement.

At the time of writing, no bookmaker has priced up the last race at Newbury tomorrow – that’s the Connect It Utility Services Handicap over six furlongs (5.18pm).

So, unusually, I am going to put up a horse at Starting Price (SP) in the form of Ed Walker’s Popmaster.I backed this horse antepost at 33-1 for last season’s Wokingham Stakes handicap at Royal Ascot and he ran a superb race to be second, caught close home by Rohaan under an inspired ride from Ryan Moore.

That fine run by Popmaster was off a rating of 98 and yet he can run off a lower mark of just 92 tomorrow. The reason for this is that Popmaster ran poorly for the rest of last season and in his first two runs this season too, both on a softish surface.

However, he is a much better horse on good ground which he should get at Newbury tomorrow. If he has really fallen out of love with the game, then he won’t win off any mark, however generous.

But his trainer still rates this sprint handicapper highly and hopes he will line up in the Wokingham Stakes again next month. However, to do that Popmaster will need to get a higher rating than 92, so expect a big run from him tomorrow. 

With no odds being offered at the time of writing, back Popmaster each way at SP with the bookmaker offering the most places tomorrow (look at the Oddschecker website later today to identify the bookie offering the best place terms but it may well be Sky Bet). Happy punting, as always.

2023 flat season running total: + 1.7 points.

Pending bets:

1 point each way Popmaster at SP in the Newbury 5.18pm race on Saturday, paying 1/5th odds, bookie offering most places.

1 point each wayZoffeeat 20-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.

Settled bets:

1 point each way Royal Scotsmanat 17/2 in the 2000 Guineas, 1/5 odds, paying four places. 3. + 0.5 points.

1 point each way Call My Bluff at 4-1 in the ChesterCup, paying six places, 1/5 odds. 3. – 0.2 points.

1 point each way Safe Voyage at 12-1 in the Victoria Cup, paying seven places, 1/5 odds. 5. + 1.4 points.

2022-3 jumps season:+ 54.3 points on all tips.

My gambling record for the seven-and-a-half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).