Aces vs Storm Predictions, Picks, and Odds

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20 May 2023

Aces vs Storm Predictions, Picks, and Odds

The Las Vegas Aces were the class of the WNBA last year, and they're loaded for bear in 2023. The Seattle Storm got much weaker in the offseason, and our WNBA betting picks expect the Aces to show no mercy in the season opener.

The Las Vegas Aces will begin their title defense on Saturday when they visit the new look Seattle Storm, as both teams open their 2023 WNBA seasons.

Las Vegas ended last year’s regular season with a 26-10 record before going on to win the WNBA Championship. Seattle went 22-14 on the year, but fell 3-1 to the Aces in the semifinals.

The Storm are now without superstars Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird, while the Aces have brought back an even stronger version of the roster that won them a title in 2022. We’ll break down this opening weekend matchup in our free WNBA picks and predictions for Aces vs. Storm on May 20.

Aces vs Storm best odds

Aces vs Storm picks and predictions

There’s no denying that the Las Vegas Aces roster is stacked. The Aces brought back every significant player from last year’s championship squad, then added future Hall of Fame center Candace Parker to line up next to A’ja Wilson. With Kelsey Plum, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, and Wilson all back alongside Parker, this is an absolutely loaded team that can hit opponents inside and on the perimeter.

Are there any reasons to doubt Las Vegas? The two-game suspension of head coach Becky Hammon for alleged mistreatment of forward Dearica Hamby could be a minor distraction, and there’s always the risk of complacency setting in after a championship. But the Aces come into the season as the favorite in what looks to be a two-team race (with the New York Liberty) in the WNBA Championship odds, while Wilson is among the top picks in the WNBA MVP odds.

The Seattle Storm are headed in the opposite direction. Seattle put together one of the WNBA’s best dynasties ever, first behind Sue Bird, and then with the addition of Breanna Stewart. Both players are now gone. Bird retired after the end of the 2022 season, while Stewart moved to the Liberty to form a super team that might compete with the Aces this year.

That leaves Jewell Loyd as the new star player in Seattle. Loyd is a four-time All-Star who averaged 16.3 points per game this year, but largely lived in the shadow of her legendary teammates. Now, she’s top dog for the Storm. Without much help, however, she’ll be fighting to get Seattle into the playoffs rather than competing for a WNBA title.

Seattle now looks like one of the weakest teams in the league, without a clear gameplan heading into the season. In their preseason rankings, ESPN rated the Storm at No. 11 out of the 12 WNBA teams, as this is a young roster with a lot to prove but little to hang its hat on yet.

That brings us to Saturday’s opener, where the Aces are a massive favorite even on the road against the Storm. Seattle was able to play the Aces close in the playoffs last year, winning a game at home and losing twice by single-digits, with the third loss coming in overtime. But that was largely behind Stewart, who kept Seattle in games with 32 and 42-point efforts.

No longer do the Storm have a superstar who can fight (let alone win) against Wilson in the post. Possibly the greatest point guard in women’s basketball history is no longer holding the team together. And the Aces have perhaps the deepest roster we’ve seen in recent memory.

Today’s game should be a coming out party for an outstanding Las Vegas team. Even with what looks like an absolutely huge spread, I’m going to take the Aces to cover, as this is a simple mismatch in talent and should be a one-sided contest.

My best bet: Aces -13 (-113 at Unibet)

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Aces vs Storm spread and Over/Under analysis

Las Vegas opened today’s game as a 12.5-point favorite in the WNBA odds, and that number has only moved further in its favor. The consensus line is now Aces -13.5, though you can still find -13 at a few books.

I talked about this in depth in the above section, but this huge line for a professional matchup is due to an extreme talent mismatch. The Aces already proved they were the superior team last year when the Storm still had all of their weapons. Without Stewart and Bird, Seattle is now in rebuilding mode, with only Loyd around to potentially steal some games.

Meanwhile, Las Vegas is better than ever, amassing as much talent as possible to build a roster that could possibly survive multiple injuries to its stars and still be a title contender. The Aces are the pick today, even with the massive spread.

The total for this game was initially set at 167.5 points. That number has largely held firm, though you can find numbers as low as 166.5 (with some slight juice on the Over) if you shop around. There’s no real consensus, but 167 flat is now the most common total, with -110 odds on both sides at most books.

The Aces scored a ton of points last year, and played at a pace that allowed opponents to rack up numbers as well. That led to an average total of 174.5, the highest number in the league. Seattle played a bit slower, with an average total of 160.9, but it’s hard to say whether the Storm will maintain that identity this year.

Las Vegas has a better idea of how they want to play, and the talent to dominate this game. I expect this one to hit the Over, mostly on the strength of an unstoppable Aces offense.