2023 WNBA Finals odds, line, Game 4 start time: Liberty vs. Aces predictions, picks, best bets by top experts
The 2023 WNBA Finals roll along on Wednesday with another high-profile matchup. The New York Liberty host the Las Vegas Aces in Game 4 of the best-of-five series. Las Vegas leads the series by a 2-1 margin, though New York won Game 3 at home. The Aces can clinch the championship with a win, while the Liberty look to send things back to Las Vegas for Game 5 if they can hold serve at Barclays Center.
Tipoff is at 8 p.m. ET. The Liberty are listed as 6-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 169 in the latest Liberty vs. Aces odds via SportsLine consensus. Before making any Aces vs. Liberty picks or WNBA predictions, you need to see what SportsLine women's basketball experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai have to say.
Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com -- a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women's game. Wetzel, the site's lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women's hoops to turn the site's prediction model into picks.
Now, Barzilai and Wetzel have turned their attention to the WNBA after going 996-685 on all college basketball picks over the last two seasons, putting them up 294 units since the start of the 2021-22 season. They also finished the 2022 WNBA regular season with a 54-44 mark in 2022. Anyone who has followed them has seen huge returns.
Now, Barzilai and Wetzel have set their sights on Aces vs. Liberty and just locked in their picks and WNBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see their picks. Now, here are several WNBA odds and betting lines for Liberty vs. Aces:
- Aces vs. Liberty spread: Liberty -6
- Aces vs. Liberty over/under: 169 points
- Aces vs. Liberty money line: Liberty -260, Aces +210
- Aces vs. Liberty picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Aces can cover
Las Vegas suffered its first loss of the playoffs in Game 3, but the Aces have an incredibly strong profile to lean on in advance of Game 4. The Aces posted the best record (34-6) in the WNBA this season, and are 7-1 in the playoffs while out-scoring opponents by more than 100 combined points. Las Vegas leads the WNBA playoffs in offensive rating (110.5) and defensive rating (93.3), holding opponents to 39.5% shooting and producing league-best marks in true shooting percentage (57.5%), free throw percentage (89.7%) and free throw creation (19.4 attempts per game) on offense.
The Aces are also shooting 39.7% from 3-point range in the series against New York. Las Vegas led the league in scoring, field goal percentage, 2-point percentage, free throw percentage and turnover avoidance in 2023, and the Aces have a bevy of highly talented offensive creators. A'Ja Wilson is the headliner for Las Vegas as a two-time MVP and five-time All-Star, and Wilson is averaging 20.3 points and 11.3 rebounds per game in the series. Kelsey Plum, a two-time All-Star, is leading the team with 26.0 points per game in the series, and Plum averaged 18.7 points and 4.5 assists per contest in the regular season. See which team to pick here.
Why the Liberty can cover
Barclays Center has been a friendly venue for the Liberty all season, and New York hosts Game 4 in Brooklyn. The Liberty went 15-5 at home during the regular season, out-scoring opponents by more than 10 points per 100 possessions. New York is also 4-1 at home in the playoffs, posting a +7.1 net rating after a 14-point win in Game 3. The Liberty were dominant in that matchup, holding the Aces to 33.3% shooting, blocking eight shots and lighting up the scoreboard on offense. New York shot 52% from the field and 43% from 3-point range in Game 3, turning the ball over only 11 times and generating 28 assists.
The Liberty led the WNBA in assists (24.1 per game), 3-pointers per game (11.1) and 3-point accuracy (37.4%) during the regular season, and New York has plenty of star power. Breanna Stewart was named as the 2023 WNBA MVP after averaging 23.0 points and 9.3 rebounds per game this season, and she is generating 19.3 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per contest in the playoffs. Stewart is flanked by Jonquel Jones, who is averaging 18.2 points and 11.7 rebounds per game in the postseason. See which team to pick here.
How to make Aces vs. Liberty picks
For Game 4 of the 2023 WNBA Finals, Barzilai and Wetzel are leaning Over on the point total, but also highlight a critical X-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. They are only sharing what it is, and which side of the Aces vs. Liberty spread to back, at SportsLine.
