2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks, Preview, Predictions

Pat Mayo provides the preview and makes early 2024 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

2024 Pebble Beach Overview

• Field: 80 Players
• Cut: NO CUT
• Lineup Lock: Thursday, February 1
• Defending Champ: Justin Rose

If there was ever a year where the Pro-Am may be an enjoyable watch, we’ve got it. With its “signature status,” Pebble Beach was forced to eliminate the worst day of coverage from the TV schedule. Since no can hit a betting winner in 2024 (welcome to my every year), not having the brutal CBS Saturday round, where they spend more time breaking down Larry the Cable Guy’s swing in slow motion than actually showing shots of, you know, pro golfers; I’m considering this a group win for all of us.

In fact, since the field has been squeezed to 80 players (from 156), the actors are all gone. Remaining are only the very privileged CEOs and a handle of athletes (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Pau Gasol, Larry Fitzgerald, and Buster Posey). ANDDDDDD, the Pro-Am portion is just the first two rounds. While I hate that there’s no cut, I’ll take going from a three course rotation to just two courses (Get LAUNCHED Monterey Peninsula) with none of the circus on the weekend.

Basically, it’s set up like the 2021 COVID event, but with the strongest field in my life time. Beyond all the Top 25 in the world rankings; AMEX winner Nick Dunlap is making his first start as a pro, Torrey winner Matthieu Pavon gets in after the victory while Maverick McNealy, Adam Scott, Webb Simpson, and Peter Malnati soaked up the four sponsors exemptions. Scott is understandable. McNealy, I guess, because of his ties to the area. But, it’s crazy that Webb and Malnati got the nod over the likes of former winner Daniel Berger, Will Zalatoris, or even 2019 US Open champ — at Pebble Beach — Gary Woodland. Strange. Malnati’s Pro-Am partner must be legit higher-up at on the TOURs bigger sponsors.

We’re getting Rory for his first PGA start in 2024 after a 2nd/1st through Dubai in January. Fleetwood played Kapalua then won the Dubai event where Rory finished second. Cam Young played the second Dubai tournament as well, finishing third. Cam’s back this week, too.

2024 Pebble Beach Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Par 5s: Gained
• Proximity Gained: 100-150 Yards
• Par-4s Gained: 350-400 Yards
• Strokes Gained: Around The Green

Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings powered by FantasyNational.com

2024 Pebble Beach Course(s)

Course: Pebble Beach GL (three Rounds)

• Par: 72
• Yardage: 6,972
• Greens: Poa
• Number of Sand Bunkers: 116
• Number of Water Hazards: 1 (ocean)
• Shot Tracker: Yes

DraftKings Showdown Streak

This course is designed to keep us from leveraging starting hole in showdown. If you’re going front-to-back, you run into holes 8-9-10 in succession, all of which rank among the five toughest on the course. If you’re going back-to-front, you get access to Holes 18-1, both of which are among the seven easiest — but, to go streaking, you need three straight. Holes 2 and 17 rank as the second and third toughest on the course, respectively. I don’t think many streaks cross over the 9’s this week, but if they do happen, I think going back-to-front is the play as you only have to birdie one tough hole as opposed to two.

Course: Spyglass Hill GC (One Round)

• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,041
• Greens: Poa
• Number of Sand Bunkers: 62
• Number of Holes Water is in Play: 4
• Shot Tracker: No

DraftKings Showdown Streak

With 8/9/10 playing has one of the tougher three hole stretches on the course, there’s a much better chance of pulling off the 17/18/1 wrap around by starting on hole 10. No. 17 and No. 1 both have a birdie rate of 25%+, just need to get lucky on No. 18 (11% birdie rate)

2024 Pebble Beach: Past Winners

• 2023: Justin Rose -18
• 2022: Tom Hoge -19
• 2021: Daniel Berger -18
• 2020: Nick Taylor -19
• 2019: Phil Mickelson -19
• 2018: Ted Potter Jr. -17
• 2017: Jordan Spieth -19
• 2016: Vaughn Taylor -17

2024 Pebble Beach Picks

Ben An

If not now, when? An opened the year with consecutive top-4 finishes, loves himself a short course, possesses one of the primer short games in the world, and actually gained strokes putting in both his career starts at Pebble Beach. He only finished T37 in his Pro-Am debut last year, but gained +0.45 strokes between driving and irons in his two rounds. He’s averaging more than that per round just off the tee over his past 20 starts.

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Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. (Subscribe for video or audio). Mayo (@ThePME) won the 2023 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Podcast of the Year and was a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time.

Mayo has been recognized across multiple sports (Football, Baseball & Golf), mediums (Video, Writing & Podcasting), genre (Humor), and game formats (Sports Betting, Daily Fantasy, and Traditional Season Long Fantasy).

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ThePME) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.