2023 John Deere Classic Picks, Preview, Predictions

Pat Mayo and Geoff Fienberg preview the course and run through the odds while making their 2023 John Deere Classic Picks and recapping the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.

2023 John Deers Classic: Field

156 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make The CutFirst Tee: Thursday, July 6

Defending Champion: JT Poston

2023 John Deere Classic: Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Opportunities Gained
• Par 4s Gained 400-450 Yards
• Proximity Gained 150-175 Yards

Par 3s (4): Average distance – 196 yards

• There are a pair of par 3s on both 9s and all of them have a par rate over 68%.

Par 4s (11): Average distance – 434 yards

• The hardest hole on both 9s is the final hole of the set … a pair of par 4s that own a bogey-or-worse rate north of 25%

Par 5s (3): Average distance – 575 yards

• Hole No. 2 owns a 4% eagle rate and all three of these holes played at least 0.25 shots under par on average

Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com

2023 John Deere Classic: Course

• Course: TPC Deere Run
• Yards: 7,289
• Par: 71
• Greens: Bentgrass

2023 John Deere Classic: Past Winners

• 2022: JT Poston -21
• 2021: Lucas Glover -19
• 2019: Dylan Frittelli -21
• 2018: Michael Kim -27
• 2017: Bryson DeChambeau -18
• 2016: Ryan Moore -22
• 2015: Jordan Spieth -20
• 2014: Brian Harman -22

2022: JT Poston -21 (three clear of Emiliano Grillo and Christian Bezuidenhout)

• He led the field by two strokes after firing a 62 on Thursday (Round 1 was the toughest in terms of field scoring) and never looked back.
• The top seven finishers all gained proximity on the field from 200+ yards.

2021: Lucas Glover -19 (two clear of Ryan Moore and Kevin Na)

• He used a pair of standout rounds (63 on Friday and 64 on Sunday) to offset a pair of comparatively ordinary rounds (68 on Thursday and 70 on Saturday).
• Glover and Moore were the only two golfers to make the cut and to gain in proximity in every single yardage bucket.

2019: Dylan Frittelli -21 (two clear of Russell Henley)

• He fired the fifth-best round of Saturday (65) … that was the only round of the week in which he was better than Henley (72).
• Frittelli lost 0.9 strokes in approach and managed to win despite being the only top-25 finisher to lose in SG:APP.

2018: Michael Kim -27 (eight clear of Bronson Burgoon, Joel Dahmen, Francesco Molinari and Sam Ryder)

• Domination. He was one of the top four scorers on the course in each of the first three rounds and even with a big lead, he shot a 66 in playing conservative.
• Kim picked up 13.5 strokes with the putter and that’s going to always cash a big check.
• Five of the top six finishers lost proximity in the 75-100-yard bucket but eight of the top 11 finishers gained proximity in both the 175-200 and 200+ ranges.

2023 John Deere Classic: DRAFTKINGS NOTES

There is a favorable nine to start on, but don’t confuse that as me saying that there is a birdie streak waiting out there on either wraparound. Understanding that, I’m going back-to-front in showdown this week. Sure, No. 18 is the second hardest hole on the course, holes 16-17-1-2 are four of the six easiest on the course (all own a birdie rate of 21% or higher). That’s a far superior run out to those starting on the front nine … those golfers get holes 7-8-9-11-12 that all rank among the nine toughest on the course. Yes, No. 10 is a gettable par 5, but that’s basically the only scoring hole as those guys near and make the turn.

2022: Poston lapped the field with 25.5 more DK points than any other golfer, an even more impactful DFS result when you consider that the two most expensive options (Webb Simpson and Adam Hadwin) missed the cut.

2021: Another tough showing for the pricy options: 15 golfers priced in the $6,000s finished with more DK points than all three of the five-figure golfers.

2019: It was a nice mix of star power and bargain shopping at the top of the board. You could have rostered the top six DK scorers and still had $1,600 left.

2018: There were 15 golfers to surpass 95 DK points … one of them (Francesco Molinari, the most expensive golfer in the field at $11,600) cost more than $8,000.

2023 John Deere Classic: Picks

Adam Schenk

There have been so “so close to winning, then finally broke through” champions this year, you’d think it’d be easy to pin down that narrative for this week. Problem is, there are too many of those guys who fit the bill this week. So, let’s just go with the most obvious choice in Adam Schenk. Is he the best player in this field? Hardly. But he’s been plenty close to winning this season with double silver medals at the Valspar and Colonial.

Schenk’s struggled against the elevated fields, no shocker. However, the JDC is far from a designated event. After a pair of MCs at the U.S. Open and Travelers, he rebounded nicely in Detroit with a T7; it seems like his game is trending to the point where he may be able to build off his T6/T4 finishes in his last two JDC starts.

Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. (Subscribe for video or audio). Mayo (@ThePME) won the 2023 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Podcast of the Year and was a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time.

Mayo has been recognized across multiple sports (Football, Baseball & Golf), mediums (Video, Writing & Podcasting), genre (Humor), and game formats (Sports Betting, Daily Fantasy, and Traditional Season Long Fantasy).

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