2024 Australian Open Best Bets: Picks and predictions for Day 11

The 2023 tennis season feels like it ended just yesterday, but the 2024 Australian Open is here. We’re already into the second week of the event, and there’s going to be tons of high-level action in Melbourne Park over the next couple of days. That presents all sorts of opportunities for bettors. Throughout the course of the 2024 tennis season, VSiN will have you covered with daily best bet write-ups for some of the biggest events of the year. That starts with the 2024 Australian Open, and we’re tackling the action for January 23 and 24 here. Keep reading for all of my best bets and check back throughout the day. I’ll add some plays if I see some numbers I like later on. 

2024 Record: 29-29 (-0.71 units)

Alcaraz absolutely pounded Zverev when these two last met at a Grand Slam, as the Spaniard earned a 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 win in the 2023 US Open quarterfinals. However, Zverev went into that match with dead legs, as he needed nearly five hours to beat Jannik Sinner in his previous outing. Zverev simply had no shot at competing with a player of Alcaraz’s caliber like that, but I like his chances of hanging around here. Zverev actually beat Alcaraz in three sets at the ATP Finals to end the 2023 season, so it’s clear he has what it takes to hit with him. 

Zverev will just need to be serving well in order to make this a lengthy match. That really shouldn’t be a problem. Zverev has a hold percentage of 92.5% through 10 matches this year, so he’s locked in with the ball on his racquet. That should allow him to rack up games, and I can even see him winning a set or two. That’s why I’m playing the Over here. 

Alcaraz should ultimately go through to the semifinals, but this match-up shouldn’t be as easy for him as it was in New York. I expect this to be a battle. From here, perhaps the Spaniard goes on to win the Australian Open.

Bet: Over 36.5 Games (-110)

I don’t have a play on this match, but I did have a future on Zheng to win the quarter. With that in mind, it might make sense to put a little something on Kalinskaya. I gave away Zheng to make the semis at +600 before the start of this event. So, I wouldn’t hate backing Kalinskaya to win a unit. That will protect you in the event the Russian stays hot. The 25-year-old is coming into her own right now. With her looking dangerous, it makes sense to play this safe.