Tennis betting tips: Australian Open day 11 best bets Wednesday January 24

Tennis betting tips: Australian Open

1pt over 1.5 tie-breaks in Hubert Hurkacz v Daniil Medvedev at 9/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)

1pt Anna Kalinskaya to beat Qinwen Zheng at 7/4 (William Hill, BoyleSports)

Hubert Hurkacz v Daniil Medvedev (not before 0230 GMT)

I’m starting to write this preview several hours after first sitting down to look at the matches. And there are only four.

Let me tell you from experience, that isn’t a great sign.

It means nothing is jumping out in terms of a bet and that I could easily sit down and make a case for any of the players to win.

Take Hurkacz, for example.

He’s the 2/1 outsider to win this contest despite leading the head-to-head 3-2.

Look deeper into that and you see he’s broken serve 11 times to Medvedev’s six which certainly surprised me. So far in this tournament, Hurkacz has only been broken five times, Medvedev 13.

Yet we all know that Hurkacz has little experience of big matches like this. This is only his second Grand Slam quarter-final; Medvedev will be playing in his ninth. Seven of those have come on his favoured hardcourts.

That has to be some sort of advantage and one of the reasons he’s the firm favourite.

Another is he has more tools at his disposal and he’s definitely the better returner.

Hurkacz is heavily reliant on his serve and the key ‘third shot’ which he wants to be his forehand. If he does serve well, those historic numbers suggest he has a decent chance.

Medvedev is yet to hit the heights he’s capable of in Melbourne – he’s dropped a set in three of his four rounds so far and was rather fortunate to survive a marathon match with Emil Ruusuvuori in round two, one the Finn will still be kicking himself over.

Still, that match did show, once again, that the Russian is a tough cookie mentally and that’s another area where you’d give him the edge.

I certainly wouldn’t rule out Hurkacz but I find it hard to go against Medvedev on his favoured surface and in a match of this size.

The alternative approach, I think, it to back TIE-BREAKS.

There has been one in four of their five previous meetings and clearly Medvedev has had problems retuning the Pole’s big delivery.

With Hurkacz one of the weaker returners in the top 10, I can see a serve-dominated affair, especially with this match scheduled for the heat of the day, and so over 1.5 tie-breaks is worth a go at 9/4.

Alex Zverev v Carlos Alcaraz (approx 1000 GMT)

Again, it’s possible to make a decent case for the underdog here but, at the end of the day, it’s hard to see Alcaraz losing.

He was impressive in easing past Miomir Kecmanovic the other day and has dropped only one set en route to this stage.

Zverev, in contrast, has twice been taken the distance and that’s far from ideal heading into the second week of a Slam. Cam Norrie pushed him beyond the four-hour mark on Monday and if this does go long, you have to feel the Spaniard has an advantage.

The good thing for Zverev is that he’s up 4-3 across their previous meetings and will draw on his surprise 2022 French Open win over Alcaraz which few saw coming.

It’s all square at 2-2 on hardcourts though (1-1 outdoors) and perhaps the most significant result in this series ahead of this match is last year’s US Open quarter-final, which Alcaraz won in straight sets and didn’t lose serve once.

He’s actually gone unbroken in three of his last five matches with Zverev and that has to be a concern for those considering siding with the German at 4/1.

Zverev does have the power – off both wings – to trouble Alcaraz but the Spaniard is a fine defender and exceptional at turning those defensive positions into attacking ones.

I don’t expect him to lose and, with no great betting angle standing out, will happily move on.

Linda Noskova v Dayana Yastremska (0100 GMT)

I’ll be honest, I’ve not seen a lot of these two over the years, never mind this week.

Noskova has been talked about as a potential star for a while now and landed her big breakthrough win when taking out top seed Iga Swiatek in round three.

She had some good fortune in the last round, playing only three games before our outright pick Elina Svitolina was forced to retire. With the draw wide open in this half, that was a body blow.

Noskova will now be looking to push on and claim a final spot – certainly there’s going to a surprise finalist – and that victory over Swiatek shows why she’s favourite here.

Yastremska is climbing back up the rankings though and has only lost one set so far in Melbourne.

She took out former champion Victoria Azarenka in the last 16 and at 9/5 certainly appears to have some potential.

Anna Kalinskaya v Qinwen Zheng (0815 GMT)

I’ve already written quite a bit about how Qinwen can do big things this year and maybe she’s going to do them at the first big tournament of the season.

She certainly played well when cruising past Oceane Dodin in the last round. However, I do see potential problems for her in this match-up, notably on second serve.

While she leads the tournament for aces and her first serve is a real weapon, the back-up delivery is a weakness.

She’s won only 42% of points behind it so far. Kalinskaya’s equivalent figure is an impressive 60% but the more concerning numbers for Qinwen regard how the Russian has got stuck into her opponents’ second serves.

Kalinskaya won 57% of the points on Sloane Stephens’ second serve, 64% on Arantxa Rus’ and 62% against Katie Volynets.

With Qinwen yet to get more than 55% first serves in play in any match so far, Kalinskaya should have chances and so I’m prepared to have a small play on her at 7/4.

Posted at 1115 GMT on 21/01/24

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