Indian Wells Best Bets: Sakkari v. Swiatek & Medvedev v. Alcaraz

It feels like tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’ll provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. With that in mind, we’re winding down with the ATP and WTA stop at Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. There’s only two matches left. In the women’s final, Maria Sakkari faces Iga Swiatek in a rematch of the 2022 final. In the men’s final, Daniil Medvedev takes on Carlos Alcaraz in a rematch of last year’s final. Keep reading for how I see that going. Also, make sure you check out the Pro Picks page for bets from other VSiN analysts.

2023 Record: 275-249 (+47.53 units)
2024 Record: 151-173 (-0.47 units)

Sakkari has done well to get herself to a final here. Things have have been rocky for her dating back to last year, but she’s finding another gear in 2024. So, it’s nice to see the Greek star back near the top of the women’s game. But I just don’t see what she can do to overcome Swiatek here. Unless the Pole completely implodes, she should win this match rather easily. She’s a better server and returner than Sakkari, and she also has a big edge from the baseline. That’s why I’m taking this and using it to better the odds on the men’s final.

Medvedev got the better of Alcaraz at the US Open last year, but the Spaniard responded with a straightforward win over the Russian at the ATP Finals. Now, Alcaraz will look to beat him in the final of this event for the second year in a row. And these conditions suit Alcaraz perfectly. It’s just impossible to get the ball by Alcaraz on slow courts, and Medvedev isn’t a guy that looks to beat opponents with winners anyway. Also, Medvedev has been a nightmare when it comes to serving at this tournament, which is why it’s shocking that he’s even in the final. But the Russian won’t be as lucky against Alcaraz. If he doesn’t serve well, this could get out of hand in a hurry.

It’s also just hard not to back Alcaraz after his wins over Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner. The Spaniard looks like he is in top form again, as he’s playing relatively mistake-free tennis and also finding ways to stay aggressive. He’s also serving better than ever. That’s why I built this play around Alcaraz. I didn’t love it at -175 or so odds, but adding Swiatek brings it closer to even.

PARLAY: Swiatek ML & Alcaraz ML (-111 – 2 units)

I gave away Alcaraz to win this tournament at +430 odds in my pre-tournament preview. if you ended up taking that advice, you might want to pass on this parlay and hedge a little. You can go with Medvedev +1.5 sets and try to hit a middle at somewhat juiced odds, or you can take the Russian on the moneyline and not cut into potential winnings as much. However, I do think this is a match Alcaraz should win. I’ll personally be letting it ride.

Carlos Alcaraz ML (+118) vs. Jannik Sinner