2024 Australian Open Men's Tip Sheet: Fliers, Fades and Picks to Win

All eyes will be on Novak Djokovic as he looks to win his 11th Australian Open title, but should you be betting on the Serbian?

Fliers

Casper Ruud (+6500): Ruud might not be able to actually come up with the goods and win this tournament, but he has proven he is capable of making deep runs at majors. The Norwegian has made it to the finals of three Grand Slams, and he has one of the most complete games on the ATP Tour. Ruud is also coming into the 2024 season with a better mindset. Last year, Ruud was mentally fatigued from a career year in 2022, and he tried to ramp up a little later in the season. That resulted in him not finding his form until just before the summer. That’s not the case this season. Ruud has come out firing in recent weeks, earning wins over Taylor Fritz and Grigor Dimitrov in one-set matches in the World Tennis League towards the end of December. Then, Ruud went out and beat Tallon Griekspoor, Borna Coric and Adrian Mannarino in straight sets at the United Cup. Ruud has flashed a little more of an aggressive style in the early portion of the year, and that should serve him well on the faster courts at the Australian Open. Overall, Ruud is arguably a top-seven player in the world, so this price seems a little off. If he finds his way into the quarterfinals or semifinals, this price would allow you to hedge and guarantee some profits.

Hubert Hurkacz (+10000): Hurkacz has never made it further than the fourth round at the Australian Open, but a player with his skill set is a threat to do damage at any hard-court event. The 26-year-old has a hold percentage of 88.3% over the last 52 weeks. Only two players on the planet have a better mark than that, and that’s a big part of the reason that only 10 players have won more matches than Hurkacz in that span. When somebody is holding serve as easily as Hurkacz, there is a massive amount of pressure on the opponent to do the same. That leads to nervous service games, and Hurkacz is good enough to break if he is given multiple opportunities. And even if he doesn’t, Hurkacz’s missile of a serve makes him an elite tiebreaker player. The Pole is just a very difficult player to oust at any given event, and he feels like a player that can surprise some people and win a major by the time his career is over. The Australian Open might give him as good of a shot as any, so I like these odds. The same logic applies for Hurkacz and Ruud: just hope they make a run, and then start hedging to set up profitable scenarios.