MLB home run leader odds: Aaron Judge leads the charge at +400

The upcoming MLB season will have thousands of home runs, but which individual player will hit the most?

The latest: Aaron Judge, who topped the 60-homer threshold two seasons ago, is favoured to be MLB's home run leader in 2024. Shohei Ohtani has some interesting value in a season in which he won't be on the mound, while Austin Riley is poised to mash with the Atlanta Braves.

MLB oddsas of 2:45 p.m. on 02/20/2024.

Best MLB home run leader odds

Two years removed from his AL-record 62 home runs, Judge is the unsurprising frontrunner to lead the majors in home runs.

Health is a major factor for Judge, who is also favoured to win AL MVP (+550). He missed nearly two months last season with a toe injury and wound up hitting 37 homers over 106 games.

Extrapolated over a full season, Judge was on a 56-homer pace, which would've topped Matt Olson's 54 HRs for the MLB lead. Clearly, Judge is still among baseball's best at hitting the long ball.

The trick for Judge is staying on the field enough to be the HR king. It's worth noting that his banner 2022 season is the only time Judge has led the majors in home runs.

Other MLB HR leader choices

Given that Ohtani is recovering from surgery that will prevent him from pitching in 2024, he can focus all his efforts on hammering baseballs at the plate.

Last year, he only needed 135 games to hit an AL-high 44 homers. Spending the upcoming season as a full-time hitter should lead to even greater success.

Opposing teams didn't do a great job pitching around Ohtani last year, but it'll be even more difficult to do so now that he plays on the star-studded Los Angeles Dodgers.

Also, Dodger Stadium allows 22% more homers than league average, making it the second-most homer-friendly park in the majors, according to Baseball Savant.

Riley hasn't crested the 40-homer mark yet, which is part of the reason his odds are so long. But he's put together three really strong seasons and could be a sneaky contender in this market.

From 2021-23, Riley has missed just eight total games while barreling more than 30 HRs in each of those seasons. He also has two Silver Slugger awards and three top-10 MVP finishes in that span.

In a lineup headlined by reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. and reigning HR leader Matt Olson, Riley can get lost in the shuffle a bit.

But he's not a guy that opposing teams can afford to pitch around due to the other stars. Riley is on the precipice of a 40-homer season, and an even greater breakout wouldn't be a surprise.