2024 MLB Home Run odds, props, leaders: Fade Aaron Judge?

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23 February 2024

2024 MLB Home Run odds, props, leaders: Fade Aaron Judge?

Pitchers and catchers reported nearly 10 days ago, the full team is now around the clubhouses and the Spring Training opener is behind us. Folks, it feels like baseball season once again. As we prepare to turn our calendars into March, Opening Day suddenly doesn't seem so far away anymore.

As the odds for the 2024 MLB season start to trickle out at various sportsbooks, many will flock to the World Series futures. Team totals, pennant-winning predictions and other props often take center stage, but we're here to discuss the most exciting individual prop today: the home run leader.

Last season, it was Matt Olson of the Atlanta Braves that led the league with 54 long balls. It was the first time Olson was crowned home run champion in a season, and he hit 10 more moonshots than the American League leader, the Los Angeles Angels' Shohei Ohtani. Of course, those two will now go head-to-head in the National League after the latter's move across L.A. to the Dodgers.

Perhaps the name most synonymous with home run in today's game isn't either of those stars, it's Aaron Judge. The New York Yankees slugger broke Roger Maris' 1961 single-season home run record in the American League back in 2022 as he left the park on 62 different occasions. It should come as no surprise then that he's the betting favorite to recapture his crown this season.

Judge (+420) leads the field with plus-money odds as one of four individuals that has shorter than 10/1 odds to lead the MLB in home runs this season. Is it worth fading the Yankees' superstar in favor of someone else in the field?

The 31-year-old followed up his record-breaking performance in 2022 with just 37 long balls last season. It's worth noting that he did miss more than 50 games, however, which undoubtedly contributed to the decline. Future injury concerns are non-existent, though, seeing as Judge played in 157 and 148 games in the respective seasons before last.

Judge also plays 50% of the season in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the MLB. Still, if you're giving me a choice between a dominant home run hitter and the field, I'll take the field every day and twice on Sunday. Let's break down some of Judge's biggest competition.

Olson (+850) is a name to keep an eye on for the award after last season's success. However, no player has won back-to-back home run titles since Toronto's Jose Bautista in 2011 and 2012. Bautista and Alex Rodriguez are also the only two players to accomplish this feat since the turn of the century.

Olson's teammates, Ronald Acuna (+1900) and Austin Riley (+2300), could also compete for the top spot as the Braves bring back a powerful lineup from top to bottom. They went for 41 and 37 home runs respectively last season, and they could be in store for more in 2024, especially the latter.

Pete Alonso (+850), Ohtani (+900) and Kyle Schwarber (+1200) also deserve a look-in as they've all led their leagues in long balls in recent years.

The most intriguing names on the list in terms of value are the Houston Astros' Yordan Alvarez (+1300) and San Francisco Giants' Jorge Soler (+5500).

The former burst onto the scene in 2019 with 27 home runs in just 87 games. He's failed to appear in 150 games in each of the last three seasons, but Alvarez has still managed 30+ home runs every year since 2021. He's the most comparable player to Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in terms of stature, measuring up at 6-foot-5, 225 pounds. If he can stay healthy in 2024, the league leaders will be forced to keep an eye on Houston's big man.

Soler led the American League in home runs back in 2019 when he smashed 48 balls over the fence with the Kansas City Royals. He hit a bit of a slump from 2020 to 2022 before bouncing back in a big way with 36 home runs for the Miami Marlins last season. He now moves to San Francisco in hopes of becoming the Giants' first 30+ home run hitter since Barry Bonds in 2004.

Soler's got light tower power and projections say that he'll fare quite well in Oracle Park, which isn't the friendliest to hitters throughout history. 32 of his 36 home runs last season would've left the yard in his new home, according to Statcast, so don't count out the 31-year-old at 55/1 odds.

Here are FanDuel Sportsbook's odds for the 2024 MLB home runs leader: