MLB home run leader odds, predictions: Can Yankees’ Aaron Judge do it again?
Aaron Judge’s historic 2022 season garnered all the headlines, and rightfully so. But the New York Yankees slugger was hardly the only guy launching baseballs into orbit all summer.
Ten players — seven from the National League, three from the American League — belted at least 35 home runs in 2022. That includes Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber, whose 46 dingers were second to Judge’s AL record 62.
Not surprisingly, Judge and Schwarber are the top two favorites in most betting markets to lead MLB in home runs in 2023. However, only four of last year’s other top-10 finishers are projected to crush a bunch of long balls again.
With spring training in full swing and Opening Day less than a month away, here’s a look at 2023 MLB home run leader odds, along with a trio of predictions — one favorite, one dark horse and one long shot.
Odds updated as of 1:30 p.m. ET on March 3.
MLB home run leader odds
MLB home run leader prediction: The favorite
After breaking Roger Maris’ American League home run record last year, Judge certainly deserves to be the clear-cut favorite to defend his crown.
But that doesn’t mean he’s a good bet to do so — for multiple reasons.
For starters, nobody has won back-to-back home run titles since Toronto’s Jose Bautista did it in 2010 and 2011. The last repeat champ prior to that? A performance-enhanced Alex Rodriquez, who three-peated from 2001-2003.
Then there’s the matter of health, which hasn’t been on Judge’s side throughout his seven-year career. Yes, he played in 148 and 157 games the past two seasons. But prior to that, he played in 28 of 60 games in 2020, 102 games in 2019 and 112 in 2018.
Judge did win the home run crown in his first full MLB season in 2017. That year, he smacked 52 — and played in 155 games. If Judge can make it through a third consecutive season unscathed, there isn’t much doubt that he’ll be in the hunt to defend his title. But we’re betting against that.
Instead, we’re taking a shot with Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez, whose best home run title odds are +1200 at Caesars Sportsbook.
Alvarez finished sixth last year with 37 homers in just 135 games — the equivalent of 44.4 dingers over a full 162-game campaign.
Entering his fifth MLB season, the 25-year-old Cuban has hit 98 home runs in 368 games and 1,537 plate appearances. So he’s gone deep in 26.6% of his games and averaged one home run every 15.6 times he’s stepped up to the plate.
Those numbers aren’t far off from Judge, who has homered in 30.2% of his games and averaged one in every 14.4 plate appearances.
Alvarez also plays for the best team in baseball and is protected by a bunch of quality hitters (namely, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker).
Just as important when it comes to this futures bet, Alvarez is not ballpark-dependent — he’s hit nearly as many home runs on the road (48 in 177 games) as he has at Minute Maid Park (50 in 191 games).
MLB home run leader prediction: The dark horse
Our dark horse bet to lead the majors in home runs in 2023 not only is Judge’s teammate in the Bronx, but he’s spent a lot more time in the training room in recent years than Judge: Giancarlo Stanton.
Look, we acknowledge the hypocrisy of this pick, as the injury-prone Stanton has missed 47% of the Yankees’ games the past four seasons (256 of 546).
But this recommendation is all about wagering value: To get a power of hitter of Stanton’s abilities at 32-to-1 — which are his odds at FanDuel — is too good to pass up.
Not only is Stanton a former home run champion — he smacked 59 in 2017, his final season with the Marlins — but he’s gone deep 66 times the last two years despite playing in only 249 games. That’s pencils out to a 26.5% average — right on par with Alvarez.
Is it wise to gamble on Stanton staying healthy all summer? Not really. But at 33 years old, he’s still in his prime despite entering his 14th season.
If Stanton can stay in the lineup — we know, it’s a gigantic “if” — he’s going to get pitches to hit as he anchors New York’s lineup in the cleanup spot. And we think it’s worth betting on him to send a lot of those pitches into the bleachers, especially at the odds FanDuel is offering.
MLB home run leader prediction: The long shot
Christian Walker is one of the best players you’ve probably never heard of — or at the very least, know little about. That’s what happens when you play for the perpetually underachieving Arizona Diamondbacks.
But Walker quietly finished seventh in MLB last season with 36 home runs in 160 games (both career highs). That’s one more bomb than was hit by NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt (whom Walker replaced at first base in Arizona) and two more than AL MVP runner-up Shohei Ohtani.
Yet Ohtani is the eighth choice at FanDuel to win the 2023 home run crown at +1900. Goldschmidt is down the board at +8000. Walker? He’s among a huge group at … +20000!
Also part of that 200-to-1 group: Lars Nootbaar, Andrew Vaughn, Vinnie Pasquantino, Jose Meneses and MJ Melendez — you know, five household names.
Like Stanton, this is a pure value play on a budding power hitter — one who also went deep 26 times in his 2019 rookie season and who plays in a very home run-friendly ballpark.
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.
