2024 MLB Predictions: Who will lead the league in RBIs?

Nola

26 February 2024

2024 MLB Predictions: Who will lead the league in RBIs?

Spring Training has begun and as the 2024 Major League Baseball season inches closer, we'll be taking a look at the odds from around the league. Last week, we examined the home run leader odds and gave some of our favorite picks. It's now time to turn our attention to the RBI leader favorites.

As the odds indicate, it's much more difficult to predict who will lead the league in runs batted in than it is home runs. There have been just three players who have led their respective leagues in RBIs since the turn of the century (Jose Abreu in 2019/2020, Nolan Arenado in 2015/2016 and David Ortiz in 2005/2006). Only Arenado led the MLB both times.

Therefore, it'll be difficult for Matt Olson (+1000) and Kyle Tucker (+2500) to repeat in 2024.

Many of the same names that reside atop the home run leaders oddsboard appear here, as well. This is because the RBI leaders usually possess the ability to hit for power and they usually reside in some of the best lineups in the league. After all, unless players are hitting a boatload of balls out of the park, they need runners to get on in front of them in order to rack up RBIs.

Now that we know what we know, who are the favorites and who are some dark horses?

American League sluggers Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge top oddsboards with +900 and +950 odds respectively. The Astros and Yankees are expected to have two of the most consistent offenses in the league this year with both big men batting in the heart of their orders.

The former is expected to move up to second in the Houston order, according to manager Joe Espada. This will get him more at-bats and more opportunities to hit with runners on base seeing as future Hall of Fame second baseman Jose Altuve (.364 career OBP) will lead off. However, Alvarez's tendency to miss a few weeks with injuries every year could hurt him. When considering the favorites, Judge is actually the safer play seeing as he has topped league leaderboards in RBIs before (2022).

Shohei Ohtani (+1000), Pete Alonso (+1200) and Austin Riley (+1300) are also expected to put up big numbers this year. These three stars should rack up the RBIs as important pieces in some of the National League's best offensive teams. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves are especially lethal having led the league with 5.8 and 5.6 runs per game on average in 2023. The New York Mets star is the experienced one here, though, having gone toe-to-toe with Judge as the MLB RBI leader (131) in 2022.

Players who have some value as long shots on this board are Bryce Harper (+2000), Adolis Garcia (+3500) and Alex Bregman (+8000). All three saw their teams finish inside the top eight for runs scored in 2023.

Harper managed 72 RBIs after missing the first few months of the season. He'll be hungry to come out and get the Phillies over the edge in 2024. Garcia stepped up for the Texas Rangers en route to the franchise's first World Series title last year. If the slugger can stay healthy, he'll look to add to his 107 RBIs from last season.

Meanwhile, Bregman (98 RBIs in 2023) is entering his most important season to date. The Astros third baseman is an unrestricted free agent after this year, and while his agents sort out his future, the former LSU superstar is going to be focused on earning himself one last massive contract. He's been named one to watch by pundits, which is why he's an excellent value play at 80/1, especially with Altuve and Alvarez hitting in front of him all season long.

Here are FanDuel Sportsbook's odds for the 2024 MLB RBI leader: