2024 MLB Season Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks shocked the baseball world in 2023, sneaking into the postseason with a young-but-talented roster that felt like it was at least a year ahead of schedule. Despite a negative run differential during the regular season, Arizona caught fire in October and made quick work of the Brewers, smoked the Dodgers, and overcame a 3-2 deficit on the road in Philadelphia to advance to the World Series. Things ended abruptly against the Rangers, but there is plenty of reason for optimism with a young and talented core in place and a few key offseason additions.
Where were they in 2023?
Led by NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll, a highly productive Ketel Marte, a vastly underrated (and old Braves friend) Christian Walker, and a strong 1-2 punch in the rotation with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, the Diamondbacks snuck into the expanded playoffs with 84 wins despite a -9 run differential. They found themselves in a virtual tie for first place at the All Star Game, but the Dodgers pulled away while Arizona spun its wheels quite a bit in the second half with a 32-39 record.
Offensively, the lineup did just enough with a 97 wRC+ that was heavily carried by the top half of the order. The D-backs were towards the bottom of the league in home runs and slugging, but helped balance it with one of the game’s most aggressive units on the base paths (166 steals, second in MLB). The lack of power would often lead to extended stretches of poor performance, including an abysmal 85 wRC+ in September as the team limped into postseason play (and benefitted greatly from the Braves sweeping the Cubs during the final week of the year).
Arizona’s pitching staff was carried by Cy Young contender Zac Gallen and worthy No. 2 Merrill Kelly, but the group overall was nothing special by way of a team 4.48 ERA / 4.35 FIP / 4.36 xFIP. The bullpen was pretty poor with just the 24th highest fWAR as a unit, and despite swinging a big Trade Deadline acquisition of Paul Sewald, the group was actually worse in the second half. Overall, the Diamondbacks combined an average position player crew with a below-average pitching staff but outplayed their run differential and BaseRuns by about 4-5 wins, and that was enough to get them into the tournament.
This was hardly a bad team, but a negative run differential and some very clear limitations outside of the top quarter of the roster really makes you wonder how this team suddenly clicked to take down Milwaukee, Los Angeles and Philadelphia in October. Baseball.
What did they do in the offseason?
The Diamondbacks had a busy offseason.
Veteran lefty starter Eduardo Rodriguez signed a four-year, $80 million pact that should provide a steady third option behind Gallen and Kelly. The addition of Rodriguez slots former top prospect Brandon Pfaadt into the fourth spot in the rotation after flashing some potential at times in 2023, including a couple of big time postseason performances.
To bolster the lineup, Arizona traded for veteran third baseman Eugenio Suarez and brought back outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a three-year deal. The Diamondbacks also brought in old friend Joc Pederson to hopefully provide some left-handed thump in the middle of their order as the presumed DH most nights. The lineup may not have a ton of ceiling to it, but there should be more depth than in 2023 with the additions of Suarez and Pederson.
Where are they hoping to go?
After their surprising run to the World Series, the Diamondbacks are hoping this is just the beginning. The National League looks extremely top-heavy for 2024 with the Braves and Dodgers leading the pack by a considerable margin, but there is a real chance for Arizona to return to the playoffs once again in the fall.
FanGraphs projects the club for 83 wins, tied for fourth-highest in the NL. The oddsmakers in Vegas are in-line with FanGraphs as many have them set for 83.5 or 84.5 wins.
I think there is certainly room for improvement from the 84 wins a season ago, especially if Corbin Carroll continues his ways and young, talented players like catcher Gabriel Moreno and the aforementioned Pfaadt take the next step. There is a lot to like with this roster and the veteran additions/retentions this winter should help carry them over the trials of a 162-game season. The roster doesn’t have a lot of obvious holes, even if the ceiling is limited in certain parts (third base, the bullpen); if anything, this club is a testament to baseball’s new landscape, where building a just-okay supporting cast along with some budding stars is more than enough to not just survive, but thrive, despite a bottom 10ish payroll.
Braves 2023 head-to-head
The Braves and Diamondbacks provided fireworks quite a few times last season, including Eddie Rosario’s stunning grand slam with two outs in the ninth:
The clubs split their six games overall, going 3-3.
The Braves’ home opener in 2024 is actually against the Diamondbacks on Friday, April 5 following road trips to Philadelphia and the south side of Chicago to begin the season. The Braves will later head west just before the All-Star Game in July for a four-game series in Arizona.
