Phillies vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Pick, odds for Game 3 of NLCS in 2023 MLB playoffs

After two resounding wins at Citizens Bank Park earlier this week, the Philadelphia Phillies look to put the hammer down on the Arizona Diamondbacks — and reach the doorstep of a second straight World Series berth — as the NLCS heads out west for Game 3 on Thursday evening. First pitch from Chase Field is set for 5:07 p.m. ET. Philly will send lefty Ranger Suarez (4-6, 4.18 ERA) to the mound, while the D-backs counter with rookie Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72) coming off a sensational start against the Dodgers in the NLDS.

The Phillies enter as -135 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Arizona at +114. The run total is set at 9.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks NLCS Game 3 picks: Thursday, Oct. 19

Injury report

Phillies

Out: 1B Rhys Hoskins (knee)

Diamondbacks

Out: RP Scott McGough (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Ranger Suarez vs. Brandon Pfaadt

Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and the Phillies bullpen have gotten all the attention during this red-hot run, but Suarez has been almost every bit as good — and every bit as important, given his role in two tight wins over the Braves in the NLDS. The lefty allowed just one run on four hits and a walk over 8.2 combined innings, including five innings of one-run ball en route to a win in the decisive Game 4. Suarez’s feel for his curveball can come and go, but when he’s locked in, we’ve seen how good he can be — 1.08 ERA in May, 2.45 in July — and like the rest of Philly’s roster, he seems to be peaking at just the right time. He faced Arizona twice during the regular season, to mixed results: Suarez allowed five runs on five hits in five innings back in May, then spun seven shutout innings with seven Ks in a no-decision at Chase Field in mid-June.

Entering this postseason, Pfaadt was arguably Arizona’s biggest question mark: The team’s top pitching prospect entering the year, he’d gotten off to a very rocky start to his big-league career, but a lack of viable starting options behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly thrust him into the postseason rotation anyway. Things didn’t go well in the Wild Card round, as the righty gave up seven hits and three runs over just 2.2 innings against the Brewers in a game the D-backs eventually won thanks to a heroic bullpen effort. Against the Dodgers, though, we finally saw the Pfaadt’s potential, as he dominated L.A.’s lineup over 4.1 innings of two-hit ball. Which version will we get on Thursday night? That’s anyone’s guess — Pfaadt has yet to face the Phillies this season — but the answer largely depends on whether his fastball and changeup show up to support his dynamite sweeper (.180 BA against, 33.7% whiff rate).

Over/Under pick

We’ve seen totals of eight and 10 so far in this series, and that was with four legit aces on the mound. Suarez and Pfaadt were both excellent the last time we saw them, but I’m still backing the over here — Arizona’s righty-heavy lineup should have a bit easier of a time than they did against Wheeler and Nola, especially with their backs against the wall in what is more or less a must-win. I’m still not totally sold on Pfaadt; the Dodgers were taking on water when he met them in the NLDS, and he still doesn’t have the full repertoire you need to conquer this ferocious Phillies lineup multiple times. Game 2 showed us what happens when Arizona has to dip into the underbelly of its bullpen, and we could see a repeat tonight.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

Yes, Philly is away from Citizens Bank Park, but they showed in the NLDS that they’re still very capable of winning on the road in October. They’re just the better team, top to bottom, than Arizona, with a fully-rested bullpen and the better starting pitcher on the mound. You never know in October, but I have a hard time backing Pfaadt even at plus odds.