2024 Sony Open in Hawaii Sleeper Picks & Predictions

It's been tough sledding for Billy Horschel over the last year but some recent results overseas could be pointing him in the right direction. Read our Sony Open in Hawaii sleeper picks below to find out if he's ready to get back in the mix.

The second stop of the Hawaiian Swing touches down at the famed Waialae Country Club in Honolulu for the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Seventeen of the past 25 winners of this event played in The Sentry the week prior, including nine of the past 12 victors. However, Si Woo Kim bucked the trend last year, and there are only 38 golfers in this week's field who also teed it up last week, including Sentry champion Chris Kirk and runner-up Sahith Theegala.

This isn’t exactly a star-studded field, either. Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Aberg, Tyrrell Hatton, Russell Henley, and Brian Harmon headline the favorites in the Sony Open in Hawaii odds. As a result, it’s an opportune event to target sleepers and long shots.

Additionally, note that all three of this week’s recommendations have plus-money golf odds to finish inside the Top 40. I also like to have action in the finishing-position markets because only one player can win any given week.

Here are our free golf picks for this week's Sony Open in Hawaii.

2024 Sony Open in Hawaii sleeper picks

• Billy Horschel to win outright (+10,000 at FanDuel)
• Ben Kohles to win outright (+11,000 at FanDuel)
• Ryo Hisatsune to win outright (+12,000 at FanDuel)
• Billy Horschel Top 40 (+125 at bet365)
• Ben Kohles Top 40 (+170 at BetRivers)
• Ryo Hisatsune Top 40 (+140 at bet365)

Picks were made on 1/9/2024 at 2:30 p.m. ET.

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2024 Sony Open in Hawaii and Waialae Country Club key stats

One of the recent secrets to winning at the scorable, Par-70 Waialae Country Club is capitalizing on the Par 5s. Putting circles on the card on No. 9 and 18 has paved the way for each of the past three winners. Si Woo Kim played the two holes at 9-under last year, 2022 winner Hideki Matsuyama played the pair at 7-under, and Kevin Na was 8-under during his 2021 victory.

A hot putter has also gone a long way. Matsuyama paced the field in strokes gained putting during his win, as did 2020 champ Cam Smith. Additionally, Kim and Na also both gained strokes on the greens and finished first and fourth, respectively, in strokes gained approach.

Similar to Kapalua last week, Waialae sets up as a second-shot track. Additionally, I value accuracy off the tee more than distance.

From a layout perspective, three of the four Par 3s are between 175 and 200 yards, with No. 4 the lone Par 3 over 200 yards. There are a pair of Par 4s under 400 yards, with the remaining 10 split evenly with five between 400-450 yards and five ranging from 450-480 yards.

The Tifdwarf Bermudagrass greens are heavily guarded by bunkers, and the tree-lined fairways and thick rough are both Bermudagrass. Water hazards only come into play on three holes.

• Strokes gained approach
• Par-5 scoring
• Strokes gained putting
• Scoring average
• Sand-save percentage

2024 Sony Open in Hawaii sleeper predictions

Billy Horschel to win outright (+10,000)

I was encouraged to see Billy Horschel find some form on the DP World Tour this fall. He rattled off a trio of Top-20 finishes and also finished fourth at the Wyndham in August. The seven-time PGA Tour winner and former FedEx Cup champ will head to Waialae CC for the seventh time, and he finished seventh in the 2021 edition.

Horschel ranks 13th in this field in true strokes putting across his past 27 measured rounds, and he’s accurate off the tee. With renewed confidence, I’m anticipating his approach game to return, too.

He went from a 40th-ranked .583 strokes gained tee-to-green two years ago to a 150th-ranked -0.298 mark last season. His form across his past 20 rounds (16 measured) suggests he could be back with positive marks in both true strokes gained off-the-tee and strokes gained approach.

Pick: Billy Horschel to win outright (+10,000 at FanDuel)
Pick: Billy Horschel Top 40 (+125 at bet365)

Ben Kohles to win outright (+11,000)

Taking what a golf course gives you can go a long way, and Ben Kohles should be an ideal course fit for Waialae CC.

He ranked eighth in driving accuracy, second in greens-in-regulation percentage, tied for fourth in scrambling, and 19th in overall putting average on the Korn Ferry Tour last season. The knock on Kohles is his distance off the tee, and that isn’t a significant hindrance at this track. 

The 33-year-old American’s high-end statistics translated to finishing No. 1 on the Korn Ferry Tour Points List, a pair of victories, and four Top-10 finishes through the final five events of the season. Kohles also kept the momentum rolling at The RSM Classic, where he carded a T5 finish and gained +1.37 true strokes on approach and 0.91 true strokes putting.

There are going to be events where Kohles is at a huge disadvantage because of his lack of distance, but this isn’t one of them, and regardless of the tour, rolling off five Top-10 finishes across six events is impressive.

Pick: Ben Kohles to win outright (+11,000 at FanDuel)
Pick: Ben Kohles Top 40 (+170 at BetRivers)

Ryo Hisatsune to win outright (+12,000)

The reigning DP World Tour Rookie of the Year has impressed at every stop, and I’m anticipating him making a splash this season. Hisatsune carded 16 Top-25 results and won the Cazoo Open de France last year. He's also posted finishes of T12 or better in all three of his PGA Tour starts. 

This will be Hisatsune’s first professional trek around Waialae CC, so he fits the longshot billing. Additionally, I'd like to see better form in his approach game. He’s lost strokes on approaches across his past three events.

Still, when he won the Cazoo he gained 1.64 true strokes on approach and 1.42 on the greens per round. Additionally, he ranks eighth in true strokes gained putting and fourth in strokes gained around the green in this field across 12 measured rounds over his past five events.

If Hisatsune’s iron game heats up, his short game will take care of putting circles on the card.

Pick: Ryo Hisatsune to win outright (+12,000 at FanDuel)
Pick: Ryo Hisatsune Top 40 (+140 at bet365)