2024 Sony Open odds, expert picks, sleepers: Ludvig Aberg among the best bets plus one and done

The PGA Tour moves from Maui to the Waialae Country Club for the Sony Open. The first full-field event of the 2024 PGA Tour season will feature 38 of the 59 golfers who teed it up last week at The Sentry as well as an eclectic mix of young PGA Tour members and Korn Ferry Tour graduates. Many players will be hoping to kickstart their seasons this week with a solid showing. Some will try to match Russell Henley who won in his first trip to the Sony Open in 2013.

The winner of The Sentry, Chris Kirk, will make the trip to the Sony Open and try to become the first to pull off the Hawaii sweep since Justin Thomas in 2017. The host venue hasn’t changed much over the years. Waialae Country Club could not be more different than the Plantation Course at Kapalua. While the Plantation Course measures almost 7,600 yards and undulates up and down a mountain while playing as a Par 73 with wide-open fairways, Waialae is a short Par 70 with tight landing areas for tee shots over a flat sea-level golf course. Waialae rewards players who can control their tee shots while gaining distance on the field. Players who spray the ball off the tee and find the 3.5-inch long rough will have difficulty keeping up with the scoring pace, as -20 seems like a good number to target if you want to be around the lead on Sunday.

When we build our models this week, we weighed driving accuracy a bit more than usual. Strokes gained on approach and putting from 20 feet were also factored in. Strokes gained around the green weren’t ignored either as we have seen players gain a real advantage over the field with their scrambling the last few years. Hideki Matsuyama took a real leap in that category the year he won in a playoff over Henley.

I would rather use players that teed it up last week when building lineups because any sort of rust could see you miss the cut when the scoring is low. Last year, the cut was -2, but the year before, the cut line was -5. That means you can’t afford to come out of the gates slowly.

Betting Slip

Ludvig Åberg +1600 sits alone at the top of my model this week, with the only asterisk being that he hasn’t teed it up at the Sony Open yet in his career. While distance off the tee is a big advantage for Åberg, he gets the advantage here through his incredible accuracy while maintaining his distance. For example, he averages more than 20 yards off the tee than Henley does and only loses 3.4 percent accuracy to Henley when it comes to hitting fairways. With no clear-cut favorite this week, we get Åberg at a very reasonable number to win.

JT Poston +3300 is not as accurate off the tee as you would think if you casually looked over his numbers. He makes up for it with his iron play and his short game. He hasn’t quite put it all together here yet, with only two top 21 finishes in his last five trips, but his current form and run of finishes means he is knocking on the door of a win. I love that he played last week and had a solid showing with a T5.

Harris English +4000 looks like he is back to full health, and this should be a nice spot to get him at a decent number before he picks up momentum in the 2024 season. He’s been great off the tee and lights out with his putter over his last three tournaments. If he can straighten out his irons, he has a real chance to contend this week. If English is healthy, where should he rank in the current PGA Tour hierarchy? Is he a top-25 player, or is he a middle-of-the-pack player?

Sleepers

Alex Noren +6600 had a nice finish to the fall with a T3 at the Shriners and a second-place finish in Bermuda. He gained more than 10.6 strokes combined on approach over the last three tournaments that tracked statistics. He gained over 12 strokes putting over his last two. He finished 32nd here in 2020, so he has some experience at Waialae.

Ben Kohles +9000 is not some young rookie graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour. At 33 years old, he’s a seasoned pro who showed his talent when he finished T5 at the RSM Classic in November.

DFS Plays

Ludvig Åberg $10,500 See above.

Matt Fitzpatrick $10,200 has been a little hit or miss with his irons since August, but when he gets it going he is a force to be reckoned with. His win at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in October is a perfect example. His putter has been hot lately, as he has gained more than 11 strokes with the flat stick in his last two tournaments combined. I always wanted to see Fitzpatrick add the Sony Open and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to his schedule, so I’m happy to play him here even if he doesn’t have any course history.

Brian Harman $9,900 may have turned a big corner as a pro with his Open Championship win, but I’m having a hard time paying this price for him when his history here is mediocre. His game should fit here on paper, yet his best finish is a T32 in the last five years.

Corey Conners $9,800 is a solid steady play here at the Sony Open. He tends to putt better here than on most other courses, as his accuracy off the tee and ball striking give him a lot of chances to break par. The upside of playing him in GPPs is a little low, but he’s a solid plug-and-play in cash games and smaller tournaments.

JT Poston $9,100 has two top 21 finishes in his last five tries, but he also missed two cuts in that same time frame. His current form is really good, which gives me hope that he can finally put it together here. He has six top-10 finishes in his last 10 tournaments. He gained over five strokes on approach twice in his last four tournaments.

Denny McCarthy $8,400 has gained over a stroke on approach in his last three tournaments. He’s two for two here in made cuts, with his best finish being a T32nd last year.

Harris English $8,300 See above.

Adam Hadwin $8,000 hasn’t played here since 2019 but comes into this week in fine form. A T14 at The Sentry was a nice follow-up to his second-place finish at the Shriners. Hadwin has gained more than 14 strokes combined with his putter over his last four tournaments.

Alex Noren $7,900 See above.

Matt Kuchar $7,800 won here in 2019 and has back-to-back seventh-place finishes the last two years. He comes into this week with two top-seven finishes in the fall.

Adam Svensson $7,700 has three straight made cuts here with a T7 in 2022. He hasn’t missed a cut since late June at the Travelers. He’s gained more than six strokes on approach combined in his last two outings.

JJ Spaun $7,600 is another player I like around this range. After missing three straight cuts here, he finally had a nice finish last year on a course that should set up well for him when he finished T12. He had three top-13 finishes in the fall and has gained strokes on approach in four straight measured events.

Ben Griffin $7,400 finished T12 here last year and comes into this week in good form. Griffin has two top-10 finishes since October and gained more than five strokes on approach twice in November.

Adrien Dumant de Chassat $7,300 won the BMW Charity Pro-Am in June on the Korn Ferry Tour, and that started a run of six-straight top 10 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour. I think he’s a little overpriced this week, but he’s a name to keep an eye on.

Alexander Bjork $7,200 is priced a little low for the type of ball striking he has shown on the DP World Tour. He had six top-10 finishes in seven tournaments from May to early July. He gained more than seven strokes on approach at the Nedbank in November on the way to another top 10.

Ryo Hisatsune $7,100 is a name you should get very familiar with. He had 14 top-21 finishes in his last 20 starts between the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour. That includes a win at the Cazoo Open de France. His last two starts on the PGA Tour are top-10 finishes. He is an excellent putter who regularly gains multiple strokes on the field.

Ben Kohles $7,000 See above.

Davis Thompson $7,000 is another St. Simons Island inhabitant who will make their way into my DFS lineups, alongside Kuchar, Griffin and Poston. Thompson made six straight cuts to finish 2023 with two top-16 finishes.

Robert MacIntyre’s $6,900 is priced very low for his caliber of player, even if this course doesn’t necessarily set up well for his game. He had eight top-10 finishes on the DP World Tour last year.

Ryan Palmer $6,900 is a horse for the course since winning here in 2010. No matter his form, he tends to show up on the Sony leaderboard. He’s made four-straight cuts here with a top four in 2020. I may sprinkle him in this week, but I don’t see much need to use him, especially in cash games.

Vince Whaley $6,900 had a nice finish to the fall with six straight made cuts and four top-25 finishes. He gained more than a stroke on approach in the last two tournaments and gained more than 2.4 strokes with the putter in four straight. He had a T17 here in 2022 on his last trip.

Matthieu Pavon $6,700 is another low-priced DP World Tour player. He won the Open de España in October and gained strokes on approach in four of his last five tournaments. He has five top-15 finishes in his last six tournaments.

Greyson Sigg $6,700 made the cut here the last two years but hasn’t finished inside the top 40 yet. He will be my lowest-priced play for the St. Simons Island team. I like that he had a top 10 in his last start and gained more than three strokes on approach in his last two starts.

Alejandro Tosti $6,600 had eight top 10s on the Korn Ferry Tour last year and he made the cut in his last three PGA Tour starts.

Sami Valimaki $6,400 is a good young player on the DP World Tour and proved as much by winning at the Qatar Masters. Nice low-priced option for your GPP lineups.

Lanto Griffin $6,200 is playing on a major medical and has made the cut here in his last two tries, with a seventh-place finish in 2020. He had a decent end to the season, making four out of his last five cuts with a T13 at the Shriners among his finishes.

One and Done

This year, we welcome golf writer Brody Miller and golf editor Hugh Kellenberger to the One and Done crew. Each week, we will pick in reverse order of the standings and we can’t duplicate picks in the same week. 

Dennis Esser: Most one and dones are starting this week and what better way to start than watching some golf in beautiful Hawaii. I was going back and forth between J.T. Poston, Ben Griffin and Matt Kuchar this week. Matt Kuchar is a safe pick, but I couldn’t get away from Poston this week. With $8.3 million in the purse and almost $1.5 million going to the winner, this tournament is nothing to sneeze at, and I hope that Poston can finally make a statement.

Hugh Kellenberger: I like Russell Henley here. He won this tournament back in 2013 and also just generally plays well at Waialae Country Club — two years ago he took Hideki Matsuyama to a playoff and his scoring average over his last 12 Sony Open rounds is 65.92. Henley was also sneakily really good in 2023.

Brody Miller: Let’s be a little conservative in Week 1. Adam Svensson is coming off a good year. Thanks to his accuracy, he played solidly at the Sentry and projects well here. He’s not the sexiest pick, but he’ll do well.