25 Bold Predictions for the B1G in 2023
Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition continues its annual Top 25 preview week with some of the hottest takes for the 2023 season.
* * * * * * *
What would you do if you could predict the future?
Write about Big Ten football for a website, I’m guessing.
But what if you could predict the future and not have to lift a finger?
Well friend, are you in luck. This here represents the opportunity of a lifetime — 25 bold predictions about the 2023 Big Ten football season.
If they don’t turn out right, hopefully the season was so exciting that you’ll forget this article ever existed once it’s time to check the receipts in December.
25. Athan Kaliakmanis will pass for more than 3,000 yards
Maybe you’re thinking “What’s so bold about this?”
There were 3 B1G quarterbacks who eclipsed 3,000 yards last year, and 5 who did it in 2021. But we are talking about a Minnesota quarterback here. And Tanner Morgan remains the only Golden Gopher to eclipse 3,000 yards in a season, doing so in 2019.
Kaliakmanis will become the second Minnesota QB across the threshold this season.
24. Tanner Mordecai will have a 400-yard game
A Wisconsin quarterback has passed for 400 yards in a game exactly twice in program history: Darrell Bevell in 1993, and Ron Vander Kelen in the 1963 Rose Bowl. Wisconsin lost both games, which explains why the practice has since been banned in Madison.
But like Haley’s Comet or those cicadas that show up every certain number of years, 400-yard games at Wisconsin fit a clearly set pattern. They happen once every 30 years. Which means the Badgers are due in 2023. And Tanner Mordecai is the man for the job. He already had a pair of 400-yard games in his time at SMU.
The science indicates a Mordecai 400-yard game is a stone-cold lock.
23. The MAC will be back with another B1G win
Given the geographical proximity, Mid-American Conference opponents are a natural non-conference scheduling solution for every Big Ten program. They are also a danger.
With the exception of 2020, when there were no non-conference games, a MAC team has beaten a Big Ten team every season since 2006. Last year Miami (Ohio) kept that streak alive by beating Northwestern.
The Wildcats are prone to upsets again this year, but don’t face any MAC teams. So who is going to keep the MAC mojo going?
Keep an eye on Northern Illinois at Nebraska in Week 3. It’s a week after the Huskers visit Colorado, which is a potential signature win for Matt Rhule early in his tenure.
Illinois’ season opener against MAC preseason favorite Toledo also jumps out. Not because the Illini will be bad this year, but because the Rockets might be that good.
Michigan State’s season opener against Central Michigan also stands out as a potential danger game. The Spartans enter 2023 on unsure footing, and a roster of players who feel overlooked by the big state school will always play with a … Chip on its shoulder.
22. Wisconsin at Washington State will be the most hostile setting in college football this year
The Big Ten kneecapped the very future of Washington State athletics this summer, and now a Big Ten team has to visit Pullman little more than a month after it happened. Do not expect Wisconsin to be greeted warmly. Not to be dramatic, but the atmosphere may end up being closer to a USA-Mexico soccer match at Estadio Azteca than a college football game.
The anger in the Washington State fanbase is palpable (rightfully so), and they’re likely to take it out on the Badgers (wrongfully so). Guys might want to consider keeping their helmets on when they’re on the sidelines. Martin Stadium is a potential tinderbox if anything remotely controversial happens in the game.
21. Matt Rhule will shine over Coach Prime
There’s a pretty good chance Matt Rhule and Deion Sanders will both head into Week 2 searching for their first wins at their new programs. Nebraska opens the year at Minnesota, and Colorado travels to TCU. Both will be considerable underdogs.
That adds an extra element of intrigue to this renewal of an old Big 8 rivalry. Who better to get your first win against than a school you have history with?
Neon Deion has gotten the attention this offseason, but Rhule took over a program in better shape. The Huskers will win in Boulder.
20. Northwestern will win at least 1 Big Ten game
It’s a toxic mess in Evanston, but the players who stayed following Pat Fitzgerald’s dismissal are on the same page. So even though Northwestern enters the year on an 11-game losing streak, don’t expect the Cats to go winless in Big Ten play this year. That hasn’t happened since 1989. And it won’t happen this year.
19. Purdue will not make a bowl game
Oddsmakers have set Purdue’s total at 5.5 wins, implying that it’s a toss-up whether the Boilermakers will go bowling. It’s not. Purdue is entering a transition year while simultaneously burdened with a nightmare schedule.
The non-conference slate of Fresno State, Virginia Tech and Syracuse offers no freebies. And beyond that, Purdue has the misfortune of facing both Michigan and Ohio State this season.
It’s all a tough ask for first-year coach Ryan Walters with a roster that lost much of last year’s star power.
18. Michigan State will make a bowl game
There’s a distinct possibility that the Spartans final 2 games this season will both be at Ford Field — the regular-season finale with Penn State, and perhaps a trip to the Quick Lane Bowl. Or maybe something a bit better.
But I believe the true identity of Mel Tucker is somewhere between going 11-2 in 2021 and 5-7 last season. This team has serious questions, but the defensive front 7 should be solid enough to make 6-6 attainable.
17. Nebraska will make a bowl game
Once upon a time, this was as bold as declaring the sun would rise. But it’s been a dark 7 years in Lincoln.
Matt Rhule will snap Nebraska’s bowl drought in Year 1. Even if that means going 6-6, it’s progress for the Cornhuskers.
16. Maryland will finish ranked for the first time since 2010
If not now, then when?
Led by senior quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland believes it can compete for a Big Ten title in 2023. As preposterous as that may sound, the Terrapins gave Michigan and Ohio State all they could handle last season. An attitude of “why not us?” is appropriate.
Not that it’s actually going to happen. But the Terps will finish in the Top 25 for the first time since joining the Big Ten, thereby lifting the Curse of Firing Ralph Friedgen.
15. Illinois will finish ranked for the first time since 2007
Maryland has considerably more preseason buzz than Illinois. But expect Bret Bielema to continue building on the progress his program has shown in his first 2 seasons in Champaign. The Fighting Illini will be a factor in the final Big Ten West race.
14. PJ Fleck will finally beat Iowa
Statistically, Minnesota should not have lost this matchup last year. The Gophers outgained the Hawkeyes by 119 yards and held the ball for 11 more minutes. But a pair of fourth quarter turnovers made the difference in a 13-10 loss, dropping Fleck to 0-6 against Kirk Ferentz.
That changes this year. Floyd of Rosedale is coming back to Minnesota.
13. Iowa will average more than 27 points per game
Just to prove I’m not being a hater: Iowa’s offense will exceed the contractually mandated average of 25 points per game that will allow offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz to keep his job.
In fact, I’m boldly predicting the Hawkeyes will go over 27 points per game. Which, admittedly, is not as bold as predicting 28 points per game. I’m not a maniac.
But quarterback Cade McNamara and a vastly improved offensive line are going to have the Hawkeyes in a much better place offensively.
12. Braelon Allen will lead the B1G in rushing
Michigan’s Blake Corum outgained Allen by 221 yards last season and will be the favorite to lead the Big Ten in rushing yardage this season. But Allen will bridge the gap this year — ironically, because both Michigan and Wisconsin will pass the ball more.
Jim Harbaugh is trusting quarterback JJ McCarthy to do more this year. That and increased carries for Donovan Edwards will cut into Corum’s numbers.
Luke Fickell’s decision to open up Wisconsin’s offense should make matters easier for Allen, who faced an 8-man box 268 times last season.
Look for Allen to take the B1G rushing title even though the Badgers will be passing much more frequently.
11. Kyle McCord will be first team all-B1G
Finally, we venture into the deep end. McCord hasn’t even been named Ohio State’s starting quarterback yet. And I’m declaring that he’ll end up a first team all-B1G quarterback despite JJ McCarthy and Taulia Tagovailoa impeding his path.
The rationale, quite simply, is history. And not just McCord’s personal history with receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who was his high school teammate.
The last time a quarterback from a school other than Ohio State was named first team all-Big Ten? Try Michigan State’s Connor Cook in 2015.
I’ll believe the streak is over when I see it.
10. Marvin Harrison Jr. will be a Heisman finalist
Harrison won’t win the Heisman. The last 2 receivers to win it — Alabama’s DeVonta Smith and Michigan’s Desmond Howard — enhanced their resumes thanks to their skills as kick returners.
But he will be like Larry Fitzgerald — a Heisman finalist who people look back on in 10 years and wonder “wait, how did that guy not win?”
It will be because he’s not a quarterback. But Harrison will be in New York City for the ceremony.
9. Penn State will (mildly) disappoint
Frankly, the bar is too high for the Nittany Lions. Any improvement over last season is contingent on beating Ohio State or Michigan. And Penn State fans will consider anything short of that a disappointment.
Expect to be disappointed. The Buckeyes and Wolverines are still loaded with veterans, and Penn State’s passing game is largely unproven at both quarterback and wide receiver.
Penn State’s defense might be good enough to compensate for that. But in drawing crossover games against Illinois and Iowa, the offense faces the only defenses in that division capable of slowing Penn State down.
Getting back to 10-2 will be tough, and surpassing it is wholly unlikely — until next year, anyway.
8. Iowa will beat Penn State in the White Out game
One prediction begets another.
First, the White Out: It’s a visual feast, but a bit overrated in terms of propelling the home team to victory. Penn State is 10-8 all-time in its signature game. And Iowa is responsible for 1 of those losses, beating the Nittany Lions 21-10 in 2009.
This year’s White Out falls in an unfortunate position. A week after facing an extremely physical Illinois team on the road, Penn State has to reprise the role against Iowa. The Hawks, on the other hand, are coming in off a game against Western Michigan where starters may well be resting for the fourth quarter.
The Hawkeyes have also won 2 straight in the series. I smell an upset.
7. Wisconsin will be the No. 3 team in the B1G
Last year’s Big Ten pecking order was quite clear:
- Michigan
- Ohio State
- Penn State
And then a wide gulf before reaching No. 4.
Luke Fickell will have Wisconsin leapfrogging the Nittany Lions for that No. 3 spot this season. His impact will be the same as Lincoln Riley’s at USC a year ago, lifting the Badgers from the doldrums to a level actually befitting their talent level.
6. Wisconsin will upset Ohio State (in Madison)
A Halloween weekend night game in Madison is an ideal setting for a most stunning outcome — and Wisconsin’s first win over Ohio State since 2010 would certainly qualify as a stunner. The additional element of Luke Fickell beating the Buckeyes just adds to this game’s appeal.
Once again, scheduling is a factor. This game falls a week after the Buckeyes face Penn State in a physically demanding game that may well come down to the wire. The Nittany Lions may not match last year’s record, but they’re still safely in the Big Ten’s top tier.
The next game after such a test is always demanding. Example: Notre Dame losing to Boston College a week after beating Florida State in the 1993 “Game of the Century.”
Getting Ohio State at this exact spot on the schedule is a perfect storm for Wisconsin.
5. Illinois will beat Wisconsin
This could be the game that ultimately derails Wisconsin’s CFP hopes.
Of course, there’s the drama and intrigue of Jim Leonhard joining Bret Bielema’s staff as an analyst this season. This game will be highlighted, circled and asterisked on the Illinois schedule.
But the more important fact is that the Illini physically manhandled the Badgers last year in a way no team has in years. Wisconsin had 2 rushing yards. Two.
Illinois has many of those players back on both fronts, and that’s a gap Wisconsin is unlikely to bridge in an offseason.
4. Ohio State will beat Michigan
The Wolverines haven’t beaten the Buckeyes 3 straight times since the John Cooper era, and I don’t see Ryan Day falling down that hole. This rivalry is on the precipice of being a true tug-of-war for the first time since the 1970s — provided that the Buckeyes stop the bleeding this year.
Despite the game being in Ann Arbor, I believe it will happen. Ohio State lost last year not because it was dominated, but because it couldn’t get out of its own way.
The overaggressive Bucks committed 9 penalties for 91 yards and got burned for 5 touchdowns of at least 45 yards. CJ Stroud also threw a pair of interceptions while Michigan played a clean game offensively.
Ohio State will clean up the sloppiness and snap the losing streak.
3. Ohio State will beat Wisconsin (in Indianapolis)
The 10th Big Ten championship game pitting winners of the East and West divisions will go the same way as the previous 9: with the East champion winning, likely in decisive fashion. A neutral setting will reveal that Ohio State is the better team in this matchup — by quite a bit.
2. The B1G will have 2 teams in the CFP
Ohio State and Michigan will reverse roles this season but end up in the same spot as last year: in the College Football Playoff.
Like last year’s Buckeyes, the Wolverines will finish 11-1 and have the chips fall in their favor on Championship Saturday for a Playoff berth.
1. Michigan will play for the national title
I still can’t trust Jim Harbaugh to win the big one. But with this roster, there’s no reason whatsoever for Michigan to lose in the CFP semifinals for the third straight year. The Wolverines are going to get over that last pesky hurdle.
Ironically, there’s a chance the “Beat Georgia” drill that Michigan added to the end of practices pays dividends with a win over the Bulldogs in the semifinals — only to have Alabama, LSU or some other baddie waiting in the wings in the national championship game.
