2023 Big Ten Championship Odds & Predictions
Who will win the Big Ten Championship in the 2023-24 college football season? Despite Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan having won back-to-back Big Ten titles, oddsmakers favor Ryan Day’s Ohio State to ascend to the top of the conference throne.
The latest odds to win the Big Ten have Ohio State listed as slight +165 favorites to win the Big 10 Title over Michigan (+170). There’s a huge drop-off to the next contender in the odds — Pen State — which is priced at +600 to win the conference.
Let’s analyze the 2023 Big Ten Championship odds and provide our prediction for which team will win the conference
2023 Big Ten Championship Odds
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Ohio State, Michigan & The Rest
In the eyes of the oddsmakers in Las Vegas, it’s Ohio State, Michigan and everyone else in the Big Ten conference. Both powerhouse programs are right around 37% implied probability to win the conference this season, while the team with the next-best odds has a 14.29% implied chance to win.
We can’t say this is too surprising when you consider the dominance of the Buckeyes and Wolverines in the conference lately. Michigan won their second straight Big Ten Title in 2022, which marked the sixth straight season one of UM and OSU took the conference crown.
Past 5 Big Ten Championship Winners
*Conference games only
Unlike Ohio State, who has lost quarterback CJ Stroud to the NFL, the Wolverines do return their starting pivot in JJ McCarthy. During the 2022 campaign, the sophomore passed for 2,719 yards and 22 touchdowns with only five interceptions.
McCarthy is one of 13 returning starters from the powerhouse 2022 Michigan team that went 13-0 in the regular season before suffering a disappointing loss to TCU in the CFP SemiFinal. Also returning is the dynamic RB tandem of Blake Corum and Donavan Edwards, who combined for 2,454 rushing yards and 25 TDs in 2022.
Ohio State, meanwhile, may not be returning its quarterback but has plenty of weapons. OSUs’ running back duo of Treveyon Henderson and Miyan Williams is set to dazzle once again after they combined for a whopping 1,396 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns last season.
While both teams have strong running back rooms, Ohio State might have the most talented player in the country. Wide receiver Marvison Harrison Jr., a popular longshot pick in the Heisman odds, is back after catching 77 passes for 1,263 yards and 14 TDs in 2022.
Penn State is third in the Big Ten Title odds at +600, but it’s clear oddsmakers view them in a separate tier from Ohio State and Michigan. The Nittany Lions return 14 starters from their 11-win team in 2022 that ended the season on an impressive five-game winning streak.
There are plenty of reasons to buy in on Penn State this season, including their solid defense and electric run game led by Nicholas Singleton. The main reason we are somewhat hesitant when making a bold Penn State football prediction is sophomore quarterback Drew Allar replacing four-year starter Drew Clifford.
Allar has terrific potential, but Penn State’s wide receiver room doesn’t exactly exude a ton of conference. It’s hard betting on a young quarterback that has to travel to Columbus to face the Buckeyes and face the Wolverines in the same season.
Don’t Sleep on Wisconsin in Big Ten Odds
Penn State is the team that has been getting the most hype as a potential sleeper in the Big Ten, but we aren’t discounting Wisconsin in year one under Luke Fickell. The Badgers could have a sneaky productive 2023 campaign after an underwhelming 7-4 season last year.
The Badgers return 13 starters from last season’s team, including key players from both the offensive and defensive units. One major change is at quarterback, where SMU QB Tanner Mordecai has transferred in to replace the struggling Graham Mertz. Last season, Mordecai threw for 3.524 yards and 33 TDs with 10 picks.
Wisconsin’s defense is always solid, and 2022 was no different. The Badgers ranked 17th nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 20.2 points per game. Strong quarterback play has been holding the team back, and Mordecai has the potential to turn things around in that department.
Braleon Allen might be the best running back in the conference after carrying the ball 230 times last season, amassing 1,242 yards and 11 touchdowns in the process. Wisconsin has the weapons to take advantage of a manageable schedule that sees them avoid Penn State and Michigan.
2023 Big Ten Championship Prediction
It’s hard to look at what Michigan is doing right now and think it’s smart to bet on their reign coming to an end in 2023. If anything, this might be Harbaugh’s most talented team yet. Over the past five years, the Wolverines have sent a whopping 37 players to the big leagues.
— Clayton Sayfie (@CSayf23) April 30, 2023
