3 early sports betting trends for the Astros

This article was contributed by BetMGM. For more sports betting insights, check outBetMGM.com.

Through the first three weeks of the MLB season, YRFI bets are dominating, league-wide unders have been dire and nearly half of all teams are profitable against the run line.

Where do the Houston Astros sit in sports betting entering the final games of April?

NRFI and YRFI -- “no runs in the first inning” and “yes runs in the first inning” -- are now the fourth-most popular type of bet at BetMGM, behind only the run line, moneyline, and over/under total. And those smashing Astros’ NRFIs this season have done well.

Only the Detroit Tigers (65%) have a higher NRFI win rate than the Astros (63%), who’ve hit the NRFI in 12 of 19 games, including seven of their last 10.

Houston’s starting rotation has a first-inning ERA of 1.42, leads the league in opponents’ NRFI (84%) and has allowed only nine first-inning hits.

Historically, the league-wide under hasn’t been good for years -- only two profitable seasons since 2010 -- but it’s been especially weak this year. And the Astros are doing their part as their up-and-down annual trend continues.

As of April 21, the Astros’ unders are 6-12-1 this year, including 3-9-1 at home and 4-12 when the closing total was below 9.

Those records come after a dominant 2022 season produced the team’s best return on investment for the under (15.9%) in nearly two decades. The under was 94-60-8 overall, 45-32-4 at home, and 83-54-7 when the closing total was below 9.

While it’s still early, Astros unders appear to be returning to 2021 form: 67-87-8 overall, 45-32-4 at home and 27-53 when the closing total was below 9.

The Astros did not cover the run line (+1.5) in a two-run loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 29, 2020. It was the first career start for Cristian Javier, who allowed just two hits and one earned run in 5 2/3 innings of the eventual 4-2 home loss.

Despite Javier’s early-career success — including only six games with more than three earned runs allowed in his first three seasons — the Astros struggled to cover the run line in his starts. Most notably, they had 18 losses against the spread over a 22-start period from early May 2021 through early August 2022.

But since mid-August 2022, the Astros have been sensational against the run line in Javier’s starts; they’re 8-4 in his last 12 starts, including 3-1 this year. Three of those four losses against the spread have come by one run -- and the other was the walk-off loss in Pittsburgh on April 11.

You can view updated Astros odds and more online sports betting opportunities at the BetMGM online sportsbook.