AEK Athens vs Brighton predictions: Europa League tips

With the top sides in each group going through to the last 16 stage of the Europa League, skipping the play-off round and a tie with a side that finished third in their Champions League group, there can be no let up from a depleted Brighton side.

Last Saturday’s 3-2 win at Nottingham Forest came at a cost for Robert De Zerbi’s team as they lost Ansu Fati and Tariq Lamptey to injuries, leaving them short-handed for Thursday’s game.

Opponents AEK must beat Brighton to have a chance of advancing to the next round, but are home underdogs in the Europa League odds for the clash, despite beating the Premier League side 3-2 at the Amex.

Betting sites lean towards the Seagulls though and that's reflected in our three AEK Athens vs Brighton tips.

Brighton may have to do it the hard way again

Back-to-back 2-0 victories over Ajax catapulted Brighton up the Group B standings after a sloppy start to their Europa League campaign, which began with that home loss to AEK. 

The Seagulls have had to learn to adapt to the demands of European football quickly and they looked like accomplished continental campaigners when winning in Amsterdam on matchday four.

The south coast side return to Europa League action off the back of an encouraging win at Nottingham Forest, where they looked better going forward after a dip before the international break. 

Evan Ferguson and the Europa League’s joint-top scorer Joao Pedro were on target at the City Ground and given Brighton’s injury issues, they are likely to be involved again in Athens. 

De Zerbi is undermanned with potentially 10 players missing this game through injury, although there’s enough quality left for them to potentially justify being odds-on with most football betting sites for the win.

AEK’s home record in Europe isn’t that impressive, failing to win any of their four Champions League qualifiers or Europa League games at the OPAP Arena this season. 

More worryingly for Matías Almeyda's team ahead of a meeting with such an attack-minded team as Brighton is their expected goals against figure of 9.8, which is the highest in the Europa League, according to Fotmob. 

But the Greek champions need to go all out for a win that will keep them in contention of reaching the knockout stage and they'll ask questions of a leaky Brighton defence, particularly from crosses into the box.

Brighton may have kept back-to-back clean sheets in the Europa League but shut outs have been a rarity domestically and they are currently on a record-setting 17-game run of both teams scoring in the Premier League.

We’re expecting another rollercoaster ride watching Brighton and will back them to win and both teams to score at 5/2 with bet365 with our first AEK vs Brighton prediction.

Seagulls can count on Adringa

One of the players to have profited from all of Brighton’s injury issues is 21-year-old Simon Adringa, who is in line for his ninth start of the season against AEK.

The Ivorian has grown in confidence as the campaign has progressed and was awarded man of the match in two of Brighton’s last three games by WhoScored.com.

His threat on the counter attack makes him an ideal player to deploy in European away games and he stole the show against Ajax, registering a goal and assist in Amsterdam.

He subsequently went away and scored his first senior international goal for the Ivory Coast against the Seychelles during the November break, taking his goal involvements for club and country this season to eight (five goals, three assists). 

Adringa has been busy in European games, registering two shots in three out of four matches, and may be worth backing on new betting sites to register a goal or assist on Thursday.

Cards could fly in Athens

With so much on the line at this juncture in the Europa League group stage, a full-blooded contest is expected in Athens, where referee Sandro Scharer could be reaching for his cards regularly. 

The Swiss official isn’t afraid to put his hand in his pocket, showing three red cards in his last six assignments, while he’s shown at least four cards in five of the last eight European matches he’s taken charge of.

Here, Scharer will try to keep a lid on an AEK team that’s been shown the most cards in this year’s Europa League, collecting 17 yellows and one red in four games.

The Greeks are also top three when it comes to average fouls per game in the Europa League, while their domestic disciplinary record isn’t much better with 28 cautions in 12 games.

Brighton have collected the joint-third most bookings in the Europa League this season with 12 yellow cards, and we’re backing over 3.5 cards to be shown in total with our final AEK vs Brighton prediction.

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Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who has worked with most major bookmakers and national media outlets, such as Racing Post and ITN. He covers a wide range of sports with his favourites being NFL, rugby, football and Formula 1.