Brighton v Marseille predictions: Europa League betting tips
Brighton vs Marseille predictions
Both Marseille and Brighton can look forward to playing European football in the new year after qualifying for the knockout phase of the Europa League, but there’s still the small matter of top spot in Group B to be decided on Thursday (TNT Sports 2, 8pm).
Both sides have won their last three Europa League games to secure the top two positions in the section, ahead of AEK Athens and Ajax.
Entering the final round of group matches, Marseille lead the standings by a single point from Brighton. Finishing top of the group means safe passage straight through to the last 16 phase of the competition, while the runners-up will face a play-off tie against a side that finished third in their Champions League group.
Given all Brighton’s injury issues, the last thing they’ll want is any more games added to their schedule and they’ll be pushing for the win.
They are the odds-on favourites on most betting apps to win Thursday's game and top the group, but that may be underestimating the French visitors.
Marseille are unbeaten in the Europa League this season and arrive in good form, making it tough to split the pair when examining the match prices in the Europa League odds.
Instead, we are choosing to focus on goals for our Brighton vs Marseille predictions with the reverse fixture between the side having ended 2-2.
Amex encounter promises excitement
The Seagulls battled back from being two goals down in the south of France to claim their first point of the competition at the start of October and have really kicked on since then.
Back-to-back wins over Ajax and a 1-0 win in Athens will extend Brighton’s first-ever European campaign beyond Christmas, although their continental exertions have come at a cost.
Roberto De Zerbi’s options have been steadily trimmed by a never-ending string of injuries, but he is fortunate to still have plenty of attacking talent at his disposal.
The Italian was left frustrated by his side’s profligacy in front of goal in Saturday’s 1-1 draw with Burnley when the south coast side registered 2.6 expected goals.
An attack potentially containing Evan Ferguson, Karou Mitoma and the Europa League’s joint-top scorer Joao Pedro is a strong combination on paper, one that will ask questions of a Marseille defence prone to errors.
L’OM have shipped nine goals in their previous five Europa League games and were breached twice away at Lorient in Ligue 1 on Sunday.
Luckily, Gennaro Gattuso’s men bagged four to chalk up their fourth straight win in all competitions. In that run, Marseille have scored 13 times with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scoring seven of those goals.
The ex-Arsenal frontman is enjoying a good run of form, tying with Pedro atop the Europa League goalscoring charts and will be looking to add to the three goals he’s previously scored against Brighton in his career.
Brighton have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three Europa League games, but that goes against what we see domestically with both teams scoring in their last 20 Premier League outings.
With Marseille’s Europa League games producing a total xG of 21.6, goals could be the way to go when examining this game on football betting sites.
Over 3.5 goals has landed in six of Brighton’s 11 home games this season and in four of Marseille’s five Europa League matches and is 13/10 with Betway to cash again on Thursday.
Clauss is coming to town
Aubameyang has stolen the headlines with his goals for Marseille lately, overshadowing some excellent work from Jonathan Clauss going forward.
The attack-minded right-wing back has caught the eye during L’OM’s recent good run of form, providing plenty of threat from out wide.
The 31-year-old recently scored his first international goal for France and registered his sixth assist of the season in the 4-2 win at Lorient before he was later sent off.
Clauss has been particularly effective for Marseille in Europe, recording a goal or assist in their five Europa League games. He has the joint-highest number of assists in the competition with four, alongside team mate Amine Harit, but Clauss has an expected assist figure of 1.7 to Harit's 0.9.
Clauss will be potentially going up against the inexperienced Jack Hinshelwood at left-back for Brighton and the potential for him to make a positive contribution to the game appears high.
He’s as big as 11/1 with some UK betting sites to score in this game, but appeals more as an anytime goal or assist option at 11/4 with bet365.
Corner count could be high
Both sides pose a serious threat from wide positions and that in turn has led to some high corner counts in matches, particularly for Brighton, who have won the fifth most corners in the Europa League so far (32).
That averages out at 6.4 corners per game in Europe but they’ve been slightly above that average in recent home games in the Premier League, winning nine corners in Saturday’s 1-1 draw with Burnley.
Marseille (26) are 14th in the Europa League standings when it comes to corners won this season but their Ligue 1 games are generating a large number of flag kicks.
Only Reims (10.87) are seeing more corners per game in the French top flight than Marseille (10.73) and we’re taking over 9.5 corners for our final Brighton vs Marseille prediction.
Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who has worked with most major bookmakers and national media outlets, such as Racing Post and ITN. He covers a wide range of sports with his favourites being NFL, rugby, football and Formula 1.
