Ajax vs Brighton betting tips & Europa League predictions
Football betting sites price the home side as significant underdogs to pick up their first European win of the season against Brighton in a match Ajax need to win to have a chance of reaching the Europa League knockout phase.
The Amsterdammers are bottom of Group B with two points, two points adrift of Brighton, who are third.
It’s a tight section with group leaders Marseille only a point clear of the Seagulls, who head to the Netherlands on a run of one win from their last eight matches in all competitions.
The relentless European schedule may be taking its toll on Roberto De Zerbi’s team, which has been hit by injuries to key players.
Still, online bookmakers are confident Brighton will get the win they need to edge closer to a spot in the last 16.
But, with Brighton’s injuries and lack of experience in Europe, matched up with an improving Ajax team, there are reasons to oppose the English outfit.
Van 't Schip shape Ajax can stay undefeated
Ajax were at rock bottom when they met Brighton last month, producing a performance bereft of confidence as they registered a dismal 0.16 expected goals.
The 2-0 scoreline flattered the visitors but they’ve been much better since Van 't Schip took over, particularly going forward.
Ajax had 30 attempts on goal in their first win under the ex-Greece head coach against Volendam, while they bagged four against Heerenveen last time out.
Brighton are a step up in quality on both of those teams, but there are signs Ajax are trending in the right direction.
Ajax had been unbeaten before the Amex defeat, drawing both their previous matches against AEK Athens and Marseille, but must get a win now to stay in the hunt for the last 16.
Ajax have won one of their last seven home European games so aren’t easy to trust, but it’s perhaps worth considering the odds on new sports betting sites for them to avoid a defeat.
Van 't Schip has helped build some confidence and tapped into Ajax’s pool of youth talent, handing chances to the likes of Kristian Hlynsson and Arjany Martha, who have impressed.
This is a big test for Ajax, but Brighton aren’t at the top of their game right now, the 1-1 draw at Everton making it five away games without a win.
A leaky defence whose only clean sheet of the season came in the win over Ajax isn’t helping matters, while De Zerbi’s options are limited by injuries to Pervis Estupinan, Danny Welbeck, Julio Enciso and Solly March.
Those absences won’t change how Brighton approach the game with their usual attacking mindset, while Ajax need to go for the win to stay in contention to reach the next round.
It sets up as an entertaining, back-and-forth encounter featuring plenty of goals, giving Ajax the chance to maintain their unbeaten start under Van 't Schip at 23/20 with Betway.
Pedro ready to produce again
Keeping out Brighton looks a tough ask for an Ajax team that's kept one clean sheet in the last 10 games.
The Seagulls have scored in their last 19 Premier League away games and bagged twice when they visited Marseille in their first European road assignment last month.
Joao Pedro got the equalising goal in the south of France and is currently the joint-leading scorer in the Europa League with four goals.
Pedro, who was called up to the Brazil squad this week, is really enjoying Brighton’s European jaunt and sits top of the competition’s ranking for expected goals and assists at 1.85.
In a game that promises goals, Pedro, who is Brighton’s designated penalty taker, is an interesting option to have a role in a goal for the away side.
The 22-year-old has six goals and one assist across all competitions for Brighton and may add to his tally in one of those metrics at 10/11 with bet365.
Brighton old boy poses a threat
Six years ago, Brighton took a young Arsenal striker on loan by the name of Chuba Akpom for what was a largely forgettable 10-game spell.
Akpom failed to score for the Seagulls but has recently started finding the back of the net for his current side, scoring three in his last two games for Ajax.
The summer signing from Middlesbrough has come off the bench in both those matches but has made a big contribution, registering seven shots on goal in a combined total of 30 minutes on the field.
The former Arsenal youngster was scoring goals for fun for Boro last term, bagging 29 in total, while just under half of his shots on goal that campaign hit the target.
Whether he starts or comes on as a substitute late on when the game is stretched, Akpom hfas a chance of registering a shot on target.
With our final Brighton vs Ajax prediction, we’re backing Akpom to have over 0.5 shots on target at 19/20 with BetMGM.
Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who has worked with most major bookmakers and national media outlets, such as Racing Post and ITN. He covers a wide range of sports with his favourites being NFL, rugby, football and Formula 1.
