AFL news 2023: Damien Hardwick to Gold Coast Suns move has to defy coaching history to be a success

Damien Hardwick will need to leave his premiership CV at the door, adjust quickly and defy history to make Gold Coast a winner.

Many in the football world see Hardwick’s appointment as the man to take over from Stuart Dew a fait accompli, given the former Richmond mentor’s glittering run at the Tigers.

Hardwick dragged Richmond from the doldrums to three premierships and a stacked resume like that is nearly impossible to look past.

But history says Hardwick could be in for a tough time on the beaches up north, if he lands the gig.

Since 2000, premiership coaches have moved into full-time positions eight times and just one – Mick Malthouse at Collingwood – has lifted the cup.

Malthouse’s superb run at the Magpies, after winning two premierships with West Coast in the 1990s, included eight separate finals appearances, double the amount of the other seven appointments combined.

And no other coaching tenure reached a preliminary final, with Malthouse’s run at Carlton the only time a coach has even won in September – an elimination final victory over Richmond that came after the Blues didn’t even make the top eight.

Some successful mentors were part of desperate and failed big swings, such as Malcolm Blight at St Kilda and Denis Pagan at Carlton, while Paul Roos (Melbourne) and Kevin Sheedy (GWS Giants) took on pain to help build a young list.

Malthouse coached more games than any other man in VFL/AFL history across four clubs in his lengthy career – Western Bulldogs, West Coast, Collingwood and Carlton – and he said there were two keys to thriving in a new club.

“Even though we get the players through the same pool, the culture, the make up are all different, different clubs have different criteria for boards, so it is a matter of adjusting,” he said.

“You don’t go in there thinking that you know it all. The premierships that you may have won with another club don’t give you any points for your next gig, you have to virtually suck it and see what they need and how they are structured and what the list might need.

“When you take a side on, your past will help you only if you learn from what you have done in the past. It doesn’t give you any bonus points to get the side up the ladder.

“On reflection, when I look back now, you weren’t aware when you went from one club to the next what was different.

“One of the first things you will realise is the whole culture, the whole scene, different boards and culture groups and the location is different. None of them (clubs) are mirror images, there are similarities but the majority is vastly different and that is what you have to adjust to.”

No doubt, the hot seat at Punt Road will be a different temperature to Heritage Bank Arena, should Hardwick lob with the Suns.

While the Suns search for a powerful new head, his old club Richmond looks set to find a fresh face.

Tigers supremo Brendon Gale recently labelled the need to hire a flag-winning coach as a “myth”.

While he didn’t commit to hiring an untried head coach to replace Hardwick, Gale clearly was leaning in that direction on AFL 360 earlier this month.

“We want to find the next great coach,” he said.

In a similar vein to premiership coaches, second or third timers have diminishing returns when compared to first-up mentors.

Again, of those hired since 2000, only Malthouse at Collingwood has won a flag and Ross Lyon in his Fremantle stint is the only other to have made it to a grand final.

Just Rodney Eade (at the Western Bulldogs) and Gary Ayres (Adelaide) made preliminary finals.

Reheated coaches have an overall win percentage of 44.9 in that time, compared to 50.8 for freshmen.

Flag-winners fare even worse, having won just 41.8 per cent of their games.

And those in their first job have much greater job security, with the 49 coaches hired into their first job since 2000 averaging 47 more games – virtually two whole seasons – in charge compared to their retread brethren.

Those numbers don’t include those in the hot seat for the first time this season, so Lyon’s St Kilda return and Brad Scott at Essendon still have a chance to defy the odds and make the eight.

Many coaches say they would have been better in the job the second time around and Malthouse said: “you are learning all the time”.

The master coach labelled Gold Coast’s sacking of Dew as “an absolute disgrace” and “treachery”.

As Malthouse said, the culture on the Gold Coast would appear to be drastically different to Richmond.

But Malthouse said he would pass on any points to help Hardwick join him in an

exclusive club of modern-day coaches to get the job done at multiple clubs.

“I don’t think Damien needs any advice from me,” he said.