AFL Grand Final 2023 Prediction, Odds & Picks

The Collingwood Magpies have had a lot of great moments at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this season, and they will be hoping for a few more to cap off a memorable campaign with a win over the Brisbane Lions in the 2023 AFL Grand Final.

For interested viewers in the USA, the match will kick off at 12:30 am ET, and you can every minute of the action on FS1.

Both of these teams have not won an AFL Grand Final in quite some time.

The Pies, who last reached the Grand Final in 2018, claimed their most recent premiership in 2010 with a replay win over the St. Kilda Saints.

For the Lions, this is their first Grand Final appearance since 2004, which marked the last of four consecutive appearances. They came out on top in the first three of those, including wins over the Pies in 2002 and 2003.

Collingwood, who had 18 wins and five losses and compiled 72 points, and Brisbane, who had 17 wins and six losses and compiled 68 points, finished first and second in the regular season standings this season. This will be the first time since 2014, when the Hawthorn Hawks defeated the Sydney Swans, that the top two teams in the ladder are meeting in the AFL Grand Final.

The Lions won both head-to-head meetings during the regular season, but the Pies are favored to take home the title at the MCG, where they have won 13 and lost three times this season.

2023 AFL Grand Final Odds

2023 AFL Grand Final betting odds are via Bovada.

Moneyline

• Collingwood Magpies -130
• Brisbane Lions +100

Spread

• Collingwood Magpies -3.5 (-115)
• Brisbane Lions +3.5 (-115)

Over/Under

• Over 166.5 (-115)
• Under 166.5 (-115)

New to Australian Rules Football? Check Out This AFL Explainer

How Collingwood and Brisbane Reached the 2023 AFL Grand Final

Collingwood Magpies

• Qualifying Final (September 7 – Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne): #1 Collingwood 60 (9 goals, 6 behinds) 60, #4 Melbourne Demons 53 (7 goals, 11 behinds)
• Semifinals (September 22 – Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne): #1 Collingwood 58 (8.10), #7 GWS Giants 57 (8.9)

Brisbane Lions

• Qualifying Final (September 9 – The Gabba, Brisbane): #2 Brisbane 123 (19.9), #3 Port Adelaide Power 75 (11.9)
• Semifinals (September 23 – The Gabba, Brisbane): #2 Brisbane 79 (11.13), #5 Carlton Blues 63 (9.9)

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL Grand Final Prediction and Picks

Craig McRae was a key piece of those Brisbane Lions teams that made four consecutive AFL Grand Finals from 2001 to 2004, but he will be looking to lead Collingwood to a premiership in his second season as head coach.

After things went south under former coach Nathan Buckley–a member of the Collingwood teams that lost to Brisbane in the 2002 and 2003 grand finals–McRae has quickly returned the Pies to the upper echelon of the AFL ladder.

After suffering a heartbreaking one-point loss to the Sydney Swans in last year’s semifinals, the Pies have been outstanding this season. They did lose three of their final regular season contests, but they still beat out the Lions and Port Adelaide Power to finish at the top of the ladder.

2023 AFL Regular Season Standings (Top Eight Teams)

Four points for a win, two points for a tie, zero points for a loss. Point percentage (the tiebreaker if teams are tied on points) = team total points scored is divided by team total points allowed, and that result is multiplied by 100 to get point percentage.

1. Collingwood Magpies – 72 points
2. Brisbane Lions – 68 (123.1 point percentage)
3. Port Adelaide Power – 68 (112.7 point percentage)
4. Melbourne Demons – 64
5. Carlton Blues – 54
6. St. Kilda Saints – 52 (107.8 point percentage)
7. GWS Giants – 52 (107.1 point percentage)
8. Sydney Swans – 50

Brisbane lost at the same stage as Collingwood last season, and their response has been similarly strong.

They won their last four regular season games to secure second in the ladder, and they enter the 2023 AFL Grand Final with six consecutive wins.

One of those six consecutive wins came against the Pies in the next to last round of the regular season, a 124-100 win at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne.

The Lions also claimed the other regular season matchup this season, a 116-83 win at The Gabba in Brisbane on April 6.

Collingwood won six straight head-to-head meetings with Brisbane from 2015 to 2019, but entering the 2023 AFL Grand Final, the Lions have won the last six matchups between the two teams.

Recent Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions Head-to-Head Results

• August 18, 2023 (Marvel Stadium, Melbourne): Lions 124 (19.10), Magpies 11 (15.10)
• April 6, 2023 (The Gabba, Brisbane): Lions 116 (18.8), Magpies 83 (11.17)
• April 14, 2022 (The Gabba, Brisbane): Lions 98 (15.8), Magpies 91 (14.7)
• August 14, 2021 (The Gabba, Brisbane): Lions 142 (22.10), Magpies 57 (8.9)
• April 1, 2021 (Marvel Stadium, Melbourne): Lions 73 (11.7), Magpies 72 (11.6)
• September 4, 2020 (The Gabba, Brisbane): Lions 42 (6.6), Magpies 34 (5.4)
• April 18, 2019 (The Gabba, Brisbane): Magpies 123 (18.15), Lions 61 (8.13)
• August 11, 2018 (Marvel Stadium, Melbourne): Magpies 104 (14.20), Lions 73 (11.7)
• May 6, 2018 (The Gabba, Brisbane): Magpies 121 (19.7), Lions 114 (18.6)
• May 27, 2017 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne): Magpies 129 (18.21), Lions 84 (13.6)

Defeating a team in the postseason after sweeping the series in the regular season–in a sport that has a shorter season in terms of games, like the AFL, NFL (where division rivals meet twice in the regular season), or college basketball (where conference foes can face off twice in the regular season) –is not an easy feat.

The Pies hold the record for the most losses in VFL (the predecessor to the AFL) and AFL Grand Final losses with 27, but they won’t add to that record this year.

Instead, they will tie the Essendon Bombers and Carlton Blues with a 16th premiership win.

VFL/AFL Grand Final history indicates that the match is unlikely to be decided by fewer than four points. So, if you are going to back Collingwood for the win, you can also confidently back the spread.

Only ten grand finals have been decided by fewer than four points, with the most recent being Collingwood and St. Kilda’s 68-68 tie in 2010.

Since 1977, that match and the West Coast Eagles’ 85-84 win over the Sydney Swans in 2006 are the only two grand finals decided by fewer than four points.

Prediction: Collingwood Magpies to win

Picks: Collingwood ML (-130 at Bovada) & Collingwood -3.5 (-115 at Bovada)

• 2022 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne): Geelong Cats 133 (20.13), Sydney Swans 52 (8.4)
• 2021 (Perth Stadium, Perth): Melbourne Demons 140 (21.14), Western Bulldogs 66 (10.6)
• 2020 (The Gabba, Brisbane): Richmond Tigers 81 (12.9), Geelong Cats 50 (7.8)
• 2019 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne): Richmond Tigers 114 (17.12), GWS Giants 25 (3.7)
• 2018 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne): West Coast Eagles 79 (11.13), Collingwood Magpies 74 (11.8)
• 2017 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne): Richmond Tigers 108 (16.12), Adelaide Crows 60 (8.12)
• 2016 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne): Western Bulldogs 89 (13.11), Sydney Swans 67 (10.7)
• 2015 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne): Hawthorn Hawks 107 (16.11), West Coast Eagles 61 (8.13)
• 2014 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne): Hawthorn Hawks 137 (21.11), Sydney Swans 74 (11.8)
• 2013 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne): Hawthorn Hawks 77 (11.11), Fremantle Dockers 62 (8.14)