Ole Miss vs. Alabama: Odds, predictions, props and best bets

Is the Alabama dynasty reaching its end? College football sportsbooks haven’t bought that just yet, and it’s hard to blame them. The Crimson Tide have had questions asked about them in past seasons, and each time, they’ve answered the bell and quieted their critics.

But this year feels different. Alabama already has a non-conference loss, which almost never happens. In fact, it hadn’t happened since 2007, Nick Saban’s first year at Alabama. Yet as they enter SEC play, the Tide have been anything but dominant.

Has that opened the door for Mississippi? It’s too soon to tell, but Ole Miss’ offense suggests it has a chance. The Rebels nearly upset Alabama last year in Oxford, and Lane Kiffin’s been closing the gap each year since he took over. This is the smallest home spread Alabama has seen since Georgia visited in 2020.

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Alabama’s biggest problem is simple: it hasn’t found a quarterback Nick Saban can trust. The Crimson Tide tried plans B and C last week against South Florida and nearly found themselves on upset alert when nobody could do the job better than Jalen Milroe.

Ole Miss hasn’t had a problem slinging the ball around, as both of its quarterbacks are likely better than anyone Alabama has. The Rebels are rolling with Jaxson Dart, who’s tossed for seven touchdowns against just one interception. But the lack of a ground game could provide problems against the wrong opponent.

The last time Ole Miss came to Tuscaloosa, the Rebels spent the first half blowing opportunities and handing the ball back to Alabama. Out of five first-half possessions, Ole Miss turned it over on downs three times, fumbled once and punted once, spotting Alabama 28 points off turnovers.

Staying aggressive is good in the right situations. But Lane Kiffin has to be smart about when to go for it. The Rebels have to make Alabama beat them, rather than handing the Tide the game before they have a chance to settle into it.

Much has been made of Alabama’s quarterback struggles. But the receivers aren’t doing much either; only Isaiah Bond has more than eight catches on the season. The pass protection isn’t helping Milroe do his work either; he’s regularly facing third-and-long situations.

The Tide’s defensive line is another sore spot compared to years past. Against Texas, Alabama didn’t get a single sack against Quinn Ewers. If Dart gets that kind of time, the Tide’s in trouble.

Given the way Alabama’s defensive line isn’t getting to the quarterback, backing the visitors seems like the right move here. Something is off with Alabama, and Mississippi’s playing well enough to exploit it and keep this game tight.

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Alabama’s offense works best when Milroe’s in the game. The Tide might not be at their best compared to past years, but they’re still good enough to move the ball and put up points when he’s playing. Mississippi gave up 23 points to Georgia Tech last week, so the Tide shouldn’t have too much trouble scoring.

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