Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime Indian Wells picks and odds: Bet on match to go the distance
Felix Auger-Aliassime will meet his toughest test yet, Carlos Alcaraz, at the Indian Wells tennis tournament on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: Both Auger-Aliassime and Alcaraz are in good form but the latter is a significant favourite (-315). Considering the head-to-head history between these two, however, there appears to be good value in betting on a tightly contested match.
Tennis odds as of 11:22 a.m. on 03/15/2023.
Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime Indian Wells picks
Best Bet: Over 2.5 sets (+163)
You can’t make it to the quarters of an ATP Masters event without playing some solid tennis, which is why we’re anticipating a close match between these two.
Alcaraz, who owns the second-shortest odds (+210) to win this tournament, has advanced to this point with very little resistance.
He hasn’t lost a set and only spent 46 minutes on the court in his most recent match. Alcaraz’s opponent, Jack Draper, retired early in the second set due to injury.
Auger-Aliassime, meanwhile, faced some serious adversity in his most recent match.
The Canadian went to three sets against Tommy Paul and, to borrow a cliche, proved that it’s not over until it’s over. The victory was a pure test of resilience as Auger-Aliassime survived six match points to overcome the American.
The key to this match for Auger-Aliassime will be his serve.
While he totalled 12 aces in his most recent match, he posted an unimpressive 58% first-serve percentage. If it’s working, he’ll keep it close against Alcaraz.
Key stat: Auger-Aliassime has won at least one set in 12 of his 16 matches on the hard court in 2023 and Alcaraz has done so in all three of his.
Quick picks
Auger-Aliassime +1.5 sets (-112): The head-to-head history between these two favours Auger-Aliassime.
The Canadian has a dominant 3-0 career record against Alcaraz, with all victories coming on the hard court.
This includes two victories for Auger-Aliassime over the Spaniard last year, one at Swiss Indoors Basel in October and another at the Davis Cup in September. In fact, Auger-Aliassime has only dropped one set to Alcaraz.
Alcaraz to win 2-1 (+270): Despite liking Auger-Aliassime to win a set, we’re ultimately siding with Alcaraz to win in three.
In a match we’re expecting to need three sets, time on court becomes a bigger factor.
Auger-Aliassime’s latest match lasted 2 hours and 46 minutes, bringing his tournament-long number up to 7 hours and 21 minutes. That’s nearly twice as long as Alcaraz’s 3 hours and 43 minutes of total court time.
The crafty returner will make Auger-Aliassime earn every point and he should be able to outlast the Canadian.
