Paul vs. Auger-Aliassime Indian Wells picks and odds: Value is on Canadian in Round of 16
Felix Auger-Aliassime looks to book a spot in the Indian Wells quarterfinal against Tommy Paul on. Tuesday.
The pregame narrative: Bettors and tennis fans won’t find a more evenly matched contest in the Round of 16 than this one. With Auger-Aliassime assuming underdog status, we’re siding with him in a match that should go the distance.
Tennis odds as of 9:39 a.m. on 03/14/2023.
Paul vs. Auger-Aliassime Indian Wells Open picks
Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime to win (+100)
No other match in the men’s draw has a favourite smaller than -150, making this a must-see contest at Indian Wells.
We’re siding with Auger-Aliassime for a few reasons, but one certainly is the even-money odds of this wager.
The second is his commanding serve. The Canadian ranks eighth among ATP competitors in serve rating (290.9) on the hard court over the last 52 weeks, according to ATP.com. That’s much higher than Paul, who places 37th (273.8) in the category.
Auger-Aliassime is blending excellent power and placement on his serve at the tournament, totalling 10 aces in his first match against Pedro Martinez and another six in his latest against Francisco Cerundolo.
That’s four more than Paul, who has also played one more set than Auger-Aliassime at Indian Wells.
Paul earns the edge in the return game, but we’ll gladly take the better server as an underdog in this contest.
Key stat: Auger-Aliassime has won 79.7% of his first serve points, tying for fifth among ATP players.
Quick picks
Over 2.5 sets (+128): With Auger-Aliassime and Paul both playing well, a three-set match is very much in play.
Paul’s most recent match was against No. 11-ranked Hubert Hurkacz and it went the distance. Against Auger-Aliassime — the No. 10 player on the ATP’s rankings — the result should be similar.
In fact, three of Paul’s last four matches needed three sets.
Auger-Aliassime’s latest match with Cerundolo didn’t need three sets, but the competitive Argentine did manage to win nine games.
There are some similarities between Cerundolo and Paul, as both own the same return rating on the hard court (146.9) across the last 52 weeks.
Auger-Aliassime to win 1-2 (+340): This is essentially a combination of the two bets we’re recommending above. We’re picking Auger-Aliassime to win, but doubt it’ll come in straight sets.
Auger-Aliassime has lost a set or needed a tiebreak in five of his last six matches. He’s no stranger to the dramatics, and will likely be in for another suspenseful contest against Paul.
The Canadian, however, has qualified for the quarters in each of his last five ATP Masters events.
