Auger-Aliassime vs. Monteiro Miami Open picks and odds: Bet on quick win for Canadian

Felix Auger-Aliassime begins his run at the Miami Open with a match against Thiago Monteiro.

The pregame narrative: Auger-Aliassime is playing some strong tennis, and we’re expecting that to continue in the second half of the Sunshine Double. His first test is Monteiro, who isn’t a very consistent hard court player.

Tennis odds as of 2:18 p.m. on 03/24/2023.

Auger-Aliassime vs. Monteiro Miami Open picks

Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime under 12.5 games won (+107)

The implication of an under bet is that you’re fading a player or a team. We’re making this wager for the exact opposite reason.

We’re betting that Auger-Aliassime will cruise to victory over Monteiro after his impressive performance at Indian Wells. He advanced all the way to the quarterfinals before losing to eventual tourney champion Carlos Alcaraz in two sets.

Auger-Aliassime continues to overwhelm opponents with his dominant serve. He fired off 34 aces in four matches, highlighted by 12 against Tommy Paul in an epic battle that saw the Canadian save six match points en route to victory.

He now owns a 9-5 record on the hard court this year and a 97-65 career mark on the surface.

Monteiro, meanwhile, has been nothing special on the hard court. He is 3-5 on the surface in 2023.

Key stat: Monteiro is a very pedestrian 76-75 on the hard court in his career.

Quick picks

Under 20.5 games (-107): Monteiro didn’t have many encounters with the ATP’s top players in 2022, but the ones he did were brief.

He faced off against three players currently listed inside the top 10 and lost two of those matches (Holger Rune, Casper Rune) in fewer than 20 games. His other contest, a loss to Taylor Fritz, needed 21 games.

At No. 6 in the rankings, Auger-Aliassime presents a daunting task for the Brazilian. It wouldn’t be shocking in the slightest to see this match wrap up fairly quickly.

Auger-Aliassime -5.5 games (+130): While we’re at it, we’re also taking the Canadian to win by six games or more. These two have met twice in the past — at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open — with Auger-Aliassime taking each contest.

Their most recent meeting occurred at Wimbledon in 2021 and Auger-Aliassime cruised to a 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 victory over Monteiro.

Monteiro lost by six-plus games in two of his three matches against ATP top-10 competitors last year.