Suncoast Stakes Predictions, Odds, Picks (Tampa Bay Downs)
A champion returns on Saturday as Wonder Wheel makes her first start since a victorious run in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies to headline a field of nine in the $125,000 Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.
Trained by Mark Casse, the daughter of Into Mischief won 4-of-5 starts as a 2-year-old. She easily accounted for a maiden and the Debutante Stakes, both at Churchill Downs, to start her career.
After a second-place finish in the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga, she got better in two starts around two turns, with a game win in the Grade 1 Alcibiades, before a very impressive championship clinching win at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Cup.
Chief among her opposition in the one mile and 40 yard Suncoast is the regally bred and unbeaten filly Julia Shining.
As a daughter of Curlin and Dreaming of Julia, not only was the Todd Pletcher-trainee produced by two top runners, but she is also a full sister to the same trainer’s two-time champion Malathaat.
The Stonestreet homebred made a splashy debut last October when she came from the clouds to win a Keeneland maiden race going away. She followed that up with a determined late run to win a sloppy edition of the Grade 2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct.
As a Kentucky Oaks trail race, the Suncoast will award qualifying points on a 20-8-6-4-2 to the first five finishers.
Suncoast Stakes Predictions and Race Analysis
Wonder Wheel
Not only was this Mark Casse-trained runner a deserving champion last year, but she was also a versatile runner who was able to win while on the early lead, from a stalking position, and from well back. That ability should suit her well as she transitions to her 3-year-old season.
Off for just over three months, she has been working sharply at her stable training center for her return and should account herself well, as usual. Breaking from the rail, she should be able to go back to her near the lead tactics here.
You never know for sure how a filly is going to transition from year to year, but this one looks like a good bet to come back running. She is strictly the one to beat, and is the top pick.
Julia Shining
The main opposition to the champ, this impeccably bred daughter of Curlin has shown little early speed in her first two career races. The fact that she was able to win both, considering where she was early, is a testament to her talent.
In both a full-field maiden race at Keeneland, then in a sloppy edition of the Grade 2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct, she flaunted a ferocious rally that would not allow her to beat. Of course, she has never faced the likes of Wonder Wheel in those first two starts.
Her last race was just over two months ago, and she has also been working well for her sophomore debut. Clearly the top threat to the favorite, she might be left with too much to do in the stretch of this one.
Opus Forty Two
A winner of the local prep for this one in the 7-furlong Gasparilla, this daughter of Mendelssohn has never finished worse for second in four lifetime starts.
After two second-place finishes in turf sprints to begin her career, she switched to dirt when she arrived at Tampa Bay Downs, where she easily broke her maiden before holding on by a nose in her stakes debut.
With good tactical speed, form and liking of the track, she must be respected, but I would expect this test to be substantially more difficult than her narrow stakes win last time.
